RE: IR6 flare not predicted by Heavens-Above

From: Matson, Robert (
Date: Wed Aug 22 2001 - 13:24:04 PDT

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    Hi Paul,
    > I saw a bright flare (about -2 magnitude)  from Iridium 6 at 1039UT on 22
    > Aug. 01 from the site coordinates listed below. This flare was not
    > by H-A.
    This was actually a double-flare, Paul.  At 10:39:00 UT,
    you would have had a broad dim flare (~+2 magnitude) from
    the left MMA.  H-A may not have predicted this one if you
    had your minimum brightness set at +1 or brighter.
    However, the second (and far brighter) flare should have
    peaked around 50 seconds later.  This definitely was a
    solar array flare, and it was predicted by IRIDFLAR to
    be magnitude -1. (Magnitude estimates on the solar array
    flares are far less certain due to the much looser
    tolerances on array pointing compared to the MMAs.) H-A
    wouldn't have predicted this one since it wasn't an MMA
    By the way, you'll have another solar array flare this
    evening, this time from Iridium 39 at 21:29:45 CDT, 40
    degrees above the southeast horizon.  Predicted magnitude
    is around -0.5.
    Tomorrow morning you'll have a double-flare from Iridium 4.
    The regular flare will come first at 5:32:55am (mag +0.0),
    followed at 5:33:44 by a -2 mag solar array flare.  Enjoy!
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