Decay watch: 2000 Aug 30 (Proton and platform)

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Aug 30 2000 - 11:47:12 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2000 Aug 30 (aux motor x 3)"

    From my Decay Watch page, which will be updated later for the other
    current decayers...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Object: #26478 = 00- 49 B = Raduga-1 5 Proton r
    
    Notice prepared: 2000 Aug 30 18:35 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Aug 29 02:59     Aug 31 13:07 +-1d         0.6 S    82.0 W
    SpaceCom   Aug 29 18:44     Aug 31 01:13 +-21h       34.7 N    66.0 E
    SpaceCom   Aug 30 00:20     Aug 31 00:42 +-15h        5.3 N    68.8 W
    SpaceCom   Aug 30 13:31     Aug 31 22:01 +-6h        44.2 N    18.0 E
    SpaceCom   Aug 30 15:35     Aug 31 21:56 +-5h        30.3 N     3.0 W
    
    SatEvo     Aug 29 15:50     Aug 30 21:43 +-9h         0.0      28.1 W
    SatEvo     Aug 30 18:35     Aug 30 21:45 +-2h         8.0 N    22.2 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              159 x 149 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.54144472  .10610251  12571-4  32120-3 0   156
    2 26478  51.6379 279.1754 0008210 289.8521  70.1679 16.44522423   284
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              144 x 136 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.72346062  .20017214  40695+0  23342-3 0 90154
    2 26478  51.6365 278.1364 0005914 290.6271  69.3095 16.49680948   313
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              135 x 129 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.78398608  .30835186  83911+0  22352-3 0 90158
    2 26478  51.6357 277.7889 0004666 290.8864  69.0637 16.52673401   324
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              120 x 117 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.84437092  .72114963  77882+1  25011-3 0 90151
    2 26478  51.6344 277.4403 0002752 291.1465  68.8241 16.57935655   330
    
    Note: It appears that SpaceCom remain confused about the identity of 
    this object and appear the be tracking one object, probably the 
    rocket, under two identities - the rocket and the "platform". All the 
    elsets issued during the past day for both this rocket and the 
    platform (#26479) can be satisfied to within 0.2 sec by the orbital 
    decay of a single object. Meantime, SpaceCom is posting similar (but 
    not identical) decay predictions for both objects. The ones posted 
    #26479 read...
    Decay predictions for #26479 (but probably identical to #26478):
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Aug 30 01:03     Aug 30 22:57 +-20h       46.6 S   102.6 W
    SpaceCom   Aug 30 13:31     Aug 30 22:20 +-6h        29.1 N   117.2 E
    SpaceCom   Aug 30 15:36     Aug 30 21:58 +-5h        37.8 N     6.5 E
    
    I predict that this will decay soon after a northbound equator 
    crossing over the Atlantic between Brazil and Africa.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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