Decay watch: 2000 Aug 29

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Aug 29 2000 - 08:54:43 PDT

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    SpaceCom has posted the first decay notices for Cosmos 1278 and for the
    two decayers from the Raduga-1 5 launch. Unfortunately, the elsets for
    the latter two objects are confused - see below.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #12547 = 81- 58 A = Cosmos 1278
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Sep  1 18:01 +-2d        61.4 S   172.9 W
       SatEvo:   Sep  1 21:45 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1278                                      4732 x 101 km
    1 12547U 81058A   00242.22907266  .35300543 -18809-5  16437-2 0  2624
    2 12547  62.9902 157.4351 2632872 194.9728 155.5808 10.52742598141983
    
    This is well placed for observation from European latitudes as it tracks
    southbound to enter eclipse in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs
    southbound on the approach to southern apex. there are predicted elsets
    on my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #22968 = 94-  2 F = GALS 1 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Aug 28 21:03 +-40m       15.8 S    31.5 E
       SatEvo:   Aug 28 20:56 -15m+80m    19.9 S    27.5 E
    
    Final elset:
    GALS 1 aux motor                                 319 x 96 km
    1 22968U 94002F   00241.81552650  .99999999  11138-4  98640-3 0  5751
    2 22968  46.6493 338.9785 0169599 273.6663  84.5392 16.24389530 90164
    
    
    The final elset shows this to be 21 sec early against my final pre-decay
    forecast. I now estimate that this decayed some distance beyond perigee
    on the orbit given by the final elset, possibly northbound over southern
    Africa. However, it is still possible that it survived to decay near
    perigee at about 22:11 UTC over the SW Atlantic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26478 = 00- 49 B = Raduga-1 5 Proton r
    
    Current decay predictions:
       SpaceCom: Aug 31 13:07 +-1d         0.6 S    82.0 W
       SatEvo:   Aug 30 21:43 +-9h         0.0      28.1 W
    
    Latest elset (see note):
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              186 x 175 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00242.56575222  .02978740  12258-4  40210-3 0    04
    2 26478  51.6377 284.6788 0008006 299.3383  60.7034 16.34449948   127
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              181 x 171 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00242.81016776  .03682423  87236-2  41434-3 0 90001
    2 26478  51.6372 283.3066 0007440 300.3619  59.5645 16.36115429   167
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              175 x 166 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.05433357  .04483954  13667-1  40389-3 0 90009
    2 26478  51.6367 281.9322 0006805 301.3872  58.5461 16.38094483   204
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              168 x 160 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.29817000  .05874696  26422-1  39288-3 0 90003
    2 26478  51.6359 280.5553 0006040 302.4144  57.5272 16.40583560   246
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              158 x 152 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.54157222  .08969473  68863-1  32644-3 0 90009
    2 26478  51.6350 279.1751 0005018 303.4441  56.5079 16.44075716   287
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              140 x 136 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.78428470  .22517610  46112+0  22887-3 0 90008
    2 26478  51.6332 277.7897 0003234 304.4778  55.4916 16.50679767   320
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              130 x 127 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.84476579  .34220364  79139+0  20404-3 0 90006
    2 26478  51.6324 277.4418 0002438 304.7374  55.2395 16.54061000   336
    Raduga-1 5 Proton r                              107 x 106 km
    1 26478U 00049B   00243.90507371 2.42999345  50000+2  47413-3 0 90008
    2 26478  51.6314 277.0925 0000889 304.9981  54.9933 16.62629822   344
    
    SpaceCom has confused the identity of the Proton rocket and its
    "platform". Some of the elsets issued for the rocket are actually for 
    platform, and vice versa. The above elset is based on one issued for the
    platform but I have redesignated it to be for the rocket. It is
    consistent with other elsets leading to the object, presumably the
    rocket, decaying on the 30th. It enters eclipse while northbound near 26
    deg S in the evening and leaves eclipse while southbound near 49 deg N
    before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26479 = 00- 49 C = Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform
    
    Decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Aug 29 05:47 +-1h        41.8 S    87.6 E
       SatEvo:   Aug 29 10:37 +-1h         0.0     148.3 E
    
    Final elset (see note):
    Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform                    154 x 153 km
    1 26479U 00049C   00242.38226874  .24783170  12534-4  87730-3 0    01
    2 26479  51.6265 285.7108 0001190  67.8971 296.2945 16.44641918    95
    
    The final elset was actually issued for the rocket but is consistent
    with earlier elsets issued for the platform and leads to the decay as
    indicated. I estimate that this decayed near the northbound equator
    crossing to the north of Australia at the end of this orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Aug 29 2000 - 09:03:26 PDT