SpaceCom has posted the first decay notices for Cosmos 1278 and for the two decayers from the Raduga-1 5 launch. Unfortunately, the elsets for the latter two objects are confused - see below. _____________________________________________________________________ #12547 = 81- 58 A = Cosmos 1278 Current decay predictions: SpaceCom: Sep 1 18:01 +-2d 61.4 S 172.9 W SatEvo: Sep 1 21:45 +-1d Latest elset: Cosmos 1278 4732 x 101 km 1 12547U 81058A 00242.22907266 .35300543 -18809-5 16437-2 0 2624 2 12547 62.9902 157.4351 2632872 194.9728 155.5808 10.52742598141983 This is well placed for observation from European latitudes as it tracks southbound to enter eclipse in the evening sky. Eclipse exit occurs southbound on the approach to southern apex. there are predicted elsets on my Decay Watch page. _____________________________________________________________________ #22968 = 94- 2 F = GALS 1 aux motor Final decay analyses: SpaceCom: Aug 28 21:03 +-40m 15.8 S 31.5 E SatEvo: Aug 28 20:56 -15m+80m 19.9 S 27.5 E Final elset: GALS 1 aux motor 319 x 96 km 1 22968U 94002F 00241.81552650 .99999999 11138-4 98640-3 0 5751 2 22968 46.6493 338.9785 0169599 273.6663 84.5392 16.24389530 90164 The final elset shows this to be 21 sec early against my final pre-decay forecast. I now estimate that this decayed some distance beyond perigee on the orbit given by the final elset, possibly northbound over southern Africa. However, it is still possible that it survived to decay near perigee at about 22:11 UTC over the SW Atlantic. _____________________________________________________________________ #26478 = 00- 49 B = Raduga-1 5 Proton r Current decay predictions: SpaceCom: Aug 31 13:07 +-1d 0.6 S 82.0 W SatEvo: Aug 30 21:43 +-9h 0.0 28.1 W Latest elset (see note): Raduga-1 5 Proton r 186 x 175 km 1 26478U 00049B 00242.56575222 .02978740 12258-4 40210-3 0 04 2 26478 51.6377 284.6788 0008006 299.3383 60.7034 16.34449948 127 SatEvo prediction: Raduga-1 5 Proton r 181 x 171 km 1 26478U 00049B 00242.81016776 .03682423 87236-2 41434-3 0 90001 2 26478 51.6372 283.3066 0007440 300.3619 59.5645 16.36115429 167 Raduga-1 5 Proton r 175 x 166 km 1 26478U 00049B 00243.05433357 .04483954 13667-1 40389-3 0 90009 2 26478 51.6367 281.9322 0006805 301.3872 58.5461 16.38094483 204 Raduga-1 5 Proton r 168 x 160 km 1 26478U 00049B 00243.29817000 .05874696 26422-1 39288-3 0 90003 2 26478 51.6359 280.5553 0006040 302.4144 57.5272 16.40583560 246 Raduga-1 5 Proton r 158 x 152 km 1 26478U 00049B 00243.54157222 .08969473 68863-1 32644-3 0 90009 2 26478 51.6350 279.1751 0005018 303.4441 56.5079 16.44075716 287 Raduga-1 5 Proton r 140 x 136 km 1 26478U 00049B 00243.78428470 .22517610 46112+0 22887-3 0 90008 2 26478 51.6332 277.7897 0003234 304.4778 55.4916 16.50679767 320 Raduga-1 5 Proton r 130 x 127 km 1 26478U 00049B 00243.84476579 .34220364 79139+0 20404-3 0 90006 2 26478 51.6324 277.4418 0002438 304.7374 55.2395 16.54061000 336 Raduga-1 5 Proton r 107 x 106 km 1 26478U 00049B 00243.90507371 2.42999345 50000+2 47413-3 0 90008 2 26478 51.6314 277.0925 0000889 304.9981 54.9933 16.62629822 344 SpaceCom has confused the identity of the Proton rocket and its "platform". Some of the elsets issued for the rocket are actually for platform, and vice versa. The above elset is based on one issued for the platform but I have redesignated it to be for the rocket. It is consistent with other elsets leading to the object, presumably the rocket, decaying on the 30th. It enters eclipse while northbound near 26 deg S in the evening and leaves eclipse while southbound near 49 deg N before dawn. _____________________________________________________________________ #26479 = 00- 49 C = Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform Decay analyses: SpaceCom: Aug 29 05:47 +-1h 41.8 S 87.6 E SatEvo: Aug 29 10:37 +-1h 0.0 148.3 E Final elset (see note): Raduga-1 5 Proton NE platform 154 x 153 km 1 26479U 00049C 00242.38226874 .24783170 12534-4 87730-3 0 01 2 26479 51.6265 285.7108 0001190 67.8971 296.2945 16.44641918 95 The final elset was actually issued for the rocket but is consistent with earlier elsets issued for the platform and leads to the decay as indicated. I estimate that this decayed near the northbound equator crossing to the north of Australia at the end of this orbit. _____________________________________________________________________ Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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