Will Lacrosse 4 manoeuvre regularly to maintain altitude?

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Sun Aug 27 2000 - 14:54:52 PDT

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    Yesterday, I commented that there may be evidence of recent small orbit-raising
    manoeuvres by Lacrosse 4. Additional observations will resolve the question.
    
    I would not be surprised to find that Lacrosse 4 performs periodic
    altitude-maintenance manoeuvres over its entire life. Previous Lacrosses have
    not done so; however, Lacrosse 4 already differs from them in that its initial
    orbit is somewhat higher, and apparently more circular.
    
    The higher, more circular orbit appears to have been made possible by launching
    on the Titan IV-B, which has greater payload mass capability than the Titan
    IV-A used for previous Lacrosses. One obvious result, was the much higher
    parking orbit, 580 X 683 km, compared with 435 X 686 km for Lacrosses 2 and 3.
    
    All things being equal, this would have enabled Lacrosse 4 to use less
    propellant to achieve the present higher orbit, than previous Lacrosses used to
    reach their lower orbits. Assuming the same initial propellant load as previous
    Lacrosses, there would be a surplus available for orbit maintenance.
    
    Titan IV-B's greater capacity might well have been used in part to increase the
    mass of Lacrosse 4, some of which could be additional propellant for orbit
    maintenance.
    
    There is a precedent for maintaining highly circular, near constant altitude
    orbits, among four well-known civilian SAR (synthetic aperture radar
    satellites.
    
    ERS-1 (91050A / 21574) maintained a near-constant altitude until 2000 day 68.
    Most of its orbital history can be found here:
    
    http://hea-www.harvard.edu/QEDT/jcm/space/elements/disk4/21500/S21574
    
    The element to look at is the mean-motion, which was always held near 14.3224
    rev/d (revolutions per day):
    
    1 21574U 91050A   99244.18650952 +.00000365 +00000-0 +15145-3 0 09698
    2 21574 098.5527 317.3575 0001108 110.7193 249.4111 14.32243231425064
    
    
    ERS-2 (95021A / 23560) behaves the same as ERS-1:
    
    http://hea-www.harvard.edu/QEDT/jcm/space/elements/disk4/23500/S23560
    
    
    JERS 1 (92007A / 21867) maintained a near-constant altitude until about 1998
    day 282:
    
    http://hea-www.harvard.edu/QEDT/jcm/space/elements/disk4/21800/S21867
    
    
    Radarsat 1 (95059A / 23710) also maintains a near-constant altitude:
    
    http://hea-www.harvard.edu/QEDT/jcm/space/elements/disk4/23700/S23710
    
    
    If Lacrosse 4 adopts this mode of operation, then prediction likely would be
    even easier than it is now, since the effects of drag would be all but
    eliminated.
    
    Of course, this is all speculative, but that is part of the fun of satellite
    sleuthing.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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