Decay watch: 2000 Aug 22

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Aug 22 2000 - 13:24:04 PDT

  • Next message: Paul Gabriel: "Lac4 obs 22 aug 00235.4"

    #21538 = 91- 46 E = Gorizont 23 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Aug 22 07:35 +-2h        16.2 N   119.8 E
       SatEvo:   Aug 22 07:37 -15+30m     29.8 N   135.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    Gorizont 23 aux motor                            280 x 114 km
    1 21538U 91046E   00235.18830559  .99999999  12219-4  12561-2 0  3866
    2 21538  46.5096 188.3857 0126489  48.9051 312.6415 16.28456538127794
    
    This elset has it 15 sec early against the prediction I posted earlier
    today though, in retrospect, that evolution was anchored on a poor elset
    - the eccentricity was too high and hence the perigee was too low.
    SpaceCom puts decay close to perigee over the Philippines while I place
    it a little further along, to the S of Japan. It is unlikely that it
    survived long enough to pass to the SW of Los Angeles at 07:58 UTC. My
    predicted elset for the start of the final rev:
    Gorizont 23 aux motor                            160 x 101 km
    1 21538U 91046E   00235.31021718 2.35190075  50000+2  87359-3 0 93842
    2 21538  46.4914 187.6868 0045715  42.5218 317.8315 16.53472384127817
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    #26361 = 00- 25 B = GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1
    
    Current decay analyses:
       SpaceCom: Aug 23 05:35 +-7h        26.9 N   144.7 E
       SatEvo:   Aug 23 08:53 +-5h        11.8 N   143.5 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1                              251 x 140 km
    1 26361U 00025B   00235.73432478  .07944240  43050-5  34937-3 0  2150
    2 26361  37.6046 161.8141 0084476 277.6478  81.7220 16.29076131 15561
    
    This elset shows it running 102 sec early against the prediction I
    posted yesterday. Although SpaceCom has an earlier decay, I show this
    decaying southbound over the E Pacific after passing close to the
    Hawaiian Is. My prediction for the final two revs:
    GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1                              157 x 114 km
    1 26361U 00025B   00236.28296545  .49708579  10689+1  28457-3 0 92148
    2 26361  37.6001 157.8671 0033212 283.0371  76.5923 16.51387557 15654
    GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1                              126 x 103 km
    1 26361U 00025B   00236.34331617 1.04939202  96007+1  26728-3 0 92143
    2 26361  37.5986 157.4221 0017990 283.6378  76.1620 16.59572092 15669
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    More details on http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan 
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Aug 22 2000 - 13:26:23 PDT