SatEvo decay list #104

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Aug 19 2000 - 07:45:56 PDT

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    SatEvo decay list #104  (issued 2000 August 19)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 October 10, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     26440   99- 57 KM  CBERS LM4 deb                    August  4.3
     24043   94- 29 CQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               August  4
     24189   94- 29 JQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               August  5.2
     24348   94- 29 NZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb               August  5.4
     15786   64-  6 G   Elektron 1 deb                   August  7.0
     26364   86- 17 NP  Mir deb                          August  7.5
     26462   00- 44 B   Progress M1-3 Soyuz-U r          August  8.57
     26419   99- 57 JQ  CBERS LM4 deb                    August 10.5
     26420   99- 57 JR  CBERS LM4 deb                    August 12.4
     26047   89-  1 N   Glonass 40 Proton deb            August 12    Note 1
     22540   92- 93 HA  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb            August 14.8  Note 1
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2              August 15.60
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2                  August 16.43
     23650   95- 17 E   Orbcomm 1 Pegasus deb   August 19.4
     24190   94- 29 JR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 19.5
     21538   91- 46 E   Gorizont 32 aux mot     August 21
     26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1     August 23
     21389   75- 52 DK  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb    August 25
     22968   94-  2 F   GALS 1 aux motor        August 27
     23291   85-118 N   Cosmos 1710 Proton deb  August 29
     24984   94- 29 ACS STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 29
     24032   94- 29 CD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 31
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r               September  3
     25180   87- 68 F   Met 2-16 Tsyklon deb September  3
     12547   81- 58 A   Cosmos 1278          September  4
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot  September  4
     23049   94- 21 G   Cosmos 2275 aux mot  September  4
     10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955           September  5
     21690   90-105 AE  DMSP F10 deb         September  5
     26136   99- 57 Y   CBERS LM4 deb        September  6
     13775   70- 91 AR  Cosmos 375 deb       September  7
     26456   99- 57 LB  CBERS LM4 deb        September  7
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r September 13
      5440   71- 71 C   Eole Scout deb       September 14
     25813   89-101 K   Cos 2354 Proton deb  September 14
     26105   00- 13 F   Express 6-A aux mot  September 16
     26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb        September 19
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r      September 20
      5070   70- 89 AH  Cosmos 374 deb       September 22
     20021   89- 16 N   M-3S2 deb            September 23
     14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r          September 24
     24341   94- 29 NS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 24
     25497   85- 56 F   Giotto Ariane 1 deb  September 24
     25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Peg stg3    September 24
     26453   99- 57 KY  CBERS LM4 deb        September 24
     11221   76-120 AY  Cosmos 880 deb       September 25
     18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb            October  2
     23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux mot    October  2
     24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  4
     26439   99- 57 KL  CBERS LM4 deb          October  4
     26413   92- 72 G   Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb    October  6
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1            October  7
      7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  October  9
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October  9
     23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 10
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October 14
     26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1    October 23
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October 27
     25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1    October 27
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1              October 29
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor   November
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November
     25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r          December
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
    
    Note
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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