I predict the following post-manoeuvre elements: Lacrosse 4 18.0 4.5 0.0 3.6 v 1 70006U 00232.99169560 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08 2 70006 68.0034 33.5786 0003670 358.9861 358.3000 14.66165000 02 The above elements assume an instantaneous circularization manoeuvre on Saturday 2000 Aug 19 at 23:48:03 UTC, at the apogee of the parking orbit, over 2.7 S and 66.92 E, headed northbound. The manoeuvre would take place within range of the U.S. military installation on Diego Garcia (approx. 7.3 S and 72.4 E). I base this prediction on the observation that Lacrosses 2 and 3 circularized their orbits under nearly the same circumstances, about 48 h after launch. I suspect that Diego Garcia plays some role in the manoeuvre. Of course, this estimate assumes that my analysis of history is correct, and that the findings hold true today. I am confident of the former, but not as confident of the latter. If my prediction is correct, then the above elements should be accurate to within several minutes in time for at least several days post-manoeuvre. Of course, it would be prudent to allow for a larger uncertainty, say +/- 20 minutes. Prior to the manoeuvre, Lacrosse 4 can be expected to trail behind the Titan 2nd stage, by up to a few minutes in time: Lacrosse 4 r 9.8 3.0 0.0 4.8 v 1 26474U 00047B 00231.70870571 .00008192 00000-0 10000-2 0 78 2 26474 68.0034 37.0298 0073926 180.3668 179.7477 14.81778880 110 Ted Molczan ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Aug 18 2000 - 14:23:32 PDT