I have updated my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
with more about the following decayers.
#13967 = 83- 25 D = Molniya 1-57 r2
Current decay estimates:
SpaceCom: Aug 16 10:29 +-13h 25.6 S 86.9 W
SatEvo: Aug 16 11:55 +-6h 31.4 S 113.7 W
Latest elset:
Molniya 1-57 r2 694 x 98 km
1 13967U 83025D 00228.55868953 .24806888 87139-5 30931-3 0 150
2 13967 62.2634 52.5932 0440117 298.3966 57.3725 15.57156959150870
The latest elset shows this running 12 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. I estimate that this will decay after perigee on the
following orbit:
Molniya 1-57 r2 291 x 91 km
1 13967U 83025D 00229.44132905 .93268556 17932+1 46687-3 0 90153
2 13967 62.2386 49.1198 0152173 298.7091 59.7699 16.30721388151014
This puts it on a northbound track over the E Pacific. If it stays in
orbit a little longer, there is a pass over the E coast of the USA from
Tampa, Florida, at 12:11 UTC to Boston, Mass, at 12:16.
_____________________________________________________________________
#24321 = 96- 56 C = GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2
Final decay estimates:
SpaceCom: Aug 15 07:22 +-2h 12.0 S 86.8 W
SatEvo: Aug 15 14:29 +-4h 21.5 N 110.9 E
Final elsets:
GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2 441 x 131 km
1 24321U 96056C 00228.02104329 -.99999999 -22473-5 -19288-1 0 7660
2 24321 34.7878 151.0547 0232477 82.5767 283.3847 15.95719254 86089
GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2 513 x 125 km
1 24321U 96056C 00228.10367355 .99999999 11120-5 65754-2 0 7674
2 24321 34.7505 150.5383 0290064 86.4898 32.5466 15.84135389 86093
SpaceCom certainly had its problems with this decayer and settled on a
decay time that I think is too early by several hours. The two final
elsets suggest that this was running only 13 and 8 seconds early
respectively against the prediction I posted yesterday, but the elsets
imply a decrease in mean motion that cannot be correct. My analysis
discards the penultimate elset, with its extreme negative drag. I show
this as decaying while southbound to the W of Hong Kong on a path that
would carry it over the Philippines. My predicted elset for that orbit
is:
GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2 256 x 111 km
1 24321U 96056C 00228.58005642 .92645582 21682+1 88485-3 0 97656
2 24321 34.7636 147.0420 0110443 90.2054 271.0602 16.33434216 86177
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Aug 15 2000 - 12:58:50 PDT