Report time 12:10 UTC
1996-056C (#24321) NAVSTAR 39 RB ( PAM-D)
Not only SpaceCom has these days problems with decay predictions caused by
the impact of the rapid changing solar activity on the atmosphere. Their last
prediction - prepared August 13, 02:09 UTC - shows the decay on
14 August, 22:34 UTC +/- 01 day (15.4°S, 187.5°E)
This was already yesterday definitely too early and also the last ELSETs
00227.117... and 00227.250 delivers with MPM + REENTRY a decay on
15 August, 11:19 UTC +/- 90 minutes (34.85°N, 109.35°E)
Let us now wait for the overdue TIP message 1 DAYS BFEORE DECAY.
In about 24 hours I will show a reliable prediction for the other decayer -
1983-025D (#13967) MOLNIYA RB 2. SpaceCom's fresh forecast - prepared August 14,
07:23 UTC - delivers the decay on
16 August, 06:41 UTC +/- 01 day (03.3°N 160.4°E)
This type of rocket body shows often a "castrophic" decay. I will wait with my
estimate until tomorrow....
Harro
Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
Berlin, Germany
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Aug 14 2000 - 05:48:09 PDT