Decay watch: 2000 Aug 8 #2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Aug 08 2000 - 12:44:53 PDT

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    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for the final decay
    notices for #26462 = 00- 44 B = Progress M1-3 Soyuz-U r. The following
    is an excerpt...
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Aug  8 14:35     Aug  8 13:59 +-1h        51.7 S    24.0 W
    
    SatEvo     Aug  8 19:35     Aug  8 13:45 +-30m       35.7 S    77.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    PrgM1-3 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       148 x 140 km
    1 26462U 00044B   00221.47423617  .27879011  12636-4  40542-3 0   151
    2 26462  51.6442 232.7016 0006110  88.8553 271.3203 16.48436254   281
    
    The final elset shows this running 11 sec early with respect to the
    SatEvo prediction I posted earlier in the day. I show this decaying
    while southbound on a track taking it across Chile and Argentina to the
    South Atlantic, where SpaceCom puts the decay a few minutes later. My
    predicted elset for the beginning of the final rev is:
    PrgM1-3 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       131 x 126 km
    1 26462U 00044B   00221.53473915  .69166142  54295+1  40569-3 0 90155
    2 26462  51.6427 232.3543 0003926  89.1143 270.9307 16.54111635   297
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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