SatEvo decay list #103

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Aug 03 2000 - 13:50:45 PDT

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    SatEvo decay list #103  (issued 2000 August 3)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 September 20, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     22402   92- 93 CT  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb              July  9.6
     24216   94- 29 KP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 10.2
     23209   94- 50 G   Cosmos 2287 aux motor              July 10.66
     24085   94- 29 EG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                 July 12.4
      7874   72- 58 AW  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb              July 14.0
     22542   92- 93 HC  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb              July 15.7
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor              July 16.34
     26401   00- 37 B   Zvezda Proton-K r                  July 17.74
      9530   74- 94 E   Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2               July 18.22
     26434   99- 57 KF  CBERS LM4 deb                      July 18?
     19390   87- 20 BW  Cosmos 1823 deb                    July 21.8
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)                July 23.49
      2363   63- 14 N   Westford Needles                   July 23.8
     18208   86- 19 RF  SPOT 1 r deb                       July 25.6
     23050   94- 21 H   Cosmos 2275 aux motor              July 25.79
     26357   00- 24 B   USA 149 Titan 4 r                  July 27.49
     26437   99- 57 KJ  CBERS LM4 deb                      July 28.7
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird                         July 27.62
     26435   99- 57 KG  CBERS LM4 deb                      July 31   Note 1
     25739   99- 26 E   Terriers adapter cone            August  1.2 Note 1
     20869   90- 81 AH  FY-1B CZ deb                     August  2.4 Note 1
     26418   99- 57 JP  CBERS LM4 deb                    August  3?  Note 1
     24043   94- 29 CQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  4.0
     26440   99- 57 KM  CBERS LM4 deb           August  4.6
     24189   94- 29 JQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  5
     24348   94- 29 NZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August  5
     15786   64-  6 G   Elektron 1 deb          August  7
     26364   86- 17 NP  Mir deb                 August  7
     26419   99- 57 JQ  CBERS LM4 deb           August  9
     26047   89-  1 N   Glonass 40 Proton deb   August 12
     26420   99- 57 JR  CBERS LM4 deb           August 13
     24190   94- 29 JR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 16
     22540   92- 93 HA  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb   August 17
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2         August 19
     23291   85-118 N   Cosmos 1710 Proton deb  August 19
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2     August 22
     22968   94-  2 F   GALS 1 aux motor        August 23
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux motor   August 26
     26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1     August 26
     24032   94- 29 CD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb      August 28
     21389   75- 52 DK  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb    August 29
     23650   95- 17 E   Orbcomm 1 Pegasus deb   August 29
     25813   89-101 K   Cos 2354 Proton deb  September  3
     21538   91- 46 E   Gorizont 32 aux mot  September  4
     25497   85- 56 F   Giotto Ariane 1 deb  September  6
     20021   89- 16 N   M-3S2 deb            September  8
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r               September  8
     10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955           September  9
     25180   87- 68 F   Met 2-16 Tsyklon deb September 12
     21690   90-105 AE  DMSP F10 deb         September 14
     23049   94- 21 G   Cosmos 2275 aux mot  September 14
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r September 14
     26136   99- 57 Y   CBERS LM4 deb        September 14
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r      September 17
     24984   94- 29 ACS STEP-2 Pegasus deb   September 19
     26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb        September 20
     14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r          September 26
     12547   81- 58 A   Cosmos 1278          September 27
     23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux mot  September 29
     25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Peg stg3    September 30
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October 10
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October 15
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1            October 20
     25031   97- 67 B   GPS II r               October 27
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1              October 29
     26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1    October 29
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor    October 30
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                November
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November
     25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r      2001 January
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79        2001 January
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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