Decay Forecast SOYUZ RB - Update

Harro.Zimmer (
Fri, 20 Aug 1999 21:47:52 +0200

Report time 19:00 UTC

1999-044B (#25890) SOYUZ RB

At this time there is no update from SpaceCom. MPM shows with the last ELSET
99232.475... a decay at
                     August 21, 21:36 UTC +/- 03 hours (42.2N, 302.3E)
on a northbound pass. 
But there is a problem: A careful analysis of the preceding last 10 ELSETs
with MPM suggests a continuously change of the ballistic coefficient, precisely 
spoken of the effective objects cross section. If I a calculate the decay under 
the assumption of a total random tumbling RB the decay time will shift to
                    August 22, 06:10 UTC +/- 90 minutes !!

Seesaters: We need in general for decayers informations about tumbling. This is
important for the precision of the decay prediction especially for MPM !!!

Berlin, Germany