Re: Molniya 1-74

finn@main.jetnet.ab.ca
Mon, 10 Aug 1998 12:00:06 -0600 (MDT)

At 07:46 AM 10/08/98 +0100, Alan Pickup wrote:
>JAY RESPLER <JRespler@surfnj.net> writes
>>finn@main.jetnet.ab.ca wrote:
>>> 
>>> As i was running my predictions for tonight, i got errors with this elset:
>>> 
>>> Molniya 1-74     4.0  0.0  0.0  5.5 d
>>> 1 19730U 88115A   98212.38274339  .99999999  38478-5  12816-2 0  8833
>>                                     ^^^^^^^^
>>> 2 19730  63.5655 331.2601 0464526 246.9587 213.6632 15.57449789 72254
>>> 
>>> Yesterday all was fine but today this one would cause errors.
>>
>>Check that drag.  What was it yesterday?  This indicates the sat is coming
>>down immediatley.
>>
>
>...and it did. My SatEvo decay list #59 reported that this probably
>decayed at July 31.47 (ie 98212.47), about two hours after the epoch of
>the above elset. USSPACECOM gives the same date. This does not explain
>why "yesterday all was fine" if "yesterday" was August 8.
>

I used Skymap and the Molczan files for 6 August to make my pass
predictions. I got an error message about Molniya 1-74 when i made up the
predictions for the 9th. I stepped the program back one day and no error
occured. When i ran today's (the 10th) predictions, no error. Why, i don't
know. Even though Molniya 1-7 became an air-breather on July 31, it's elsets
were still listed so the program saw it and tried to see if it would make a
visible pass, which it didn't.

Jari