re: What is Cosmos 1953?
Walter Nissen (dk058@cleveland.Freenet.Edu)
Thu, 21 Aug 1997 11:59:47 -0400 (EDT)
Larry Van Horn,
Thank you very much for your response.
You clarified some weaknesses in my phrasing. Some people listening in RF
(or watching in RF; conversely, the SeeSat-L people could be said to be
listening to broad-band weakly-tuned receivers up in the 600 THz band :-)
apparently have no doubt about the difference between the Tselina-Ds and
the Okeans. I didn't strongly assert this simply because it is not within
my direct experience, but did not mean to cast any doubt. I have no doubt
that you are correct that, when viewed as constellations, the orbits of
Tselina-Ds and Okeans are distinguishable, (but again this is something I
have not personally verified). But, to the contrary, no one has come
forward to suggest an ability or an analytic technique for categorizing
any single given TLE (no fair consulting a table of actual satellite
orbital data).
Another possible distinction between Tselinas and Okeans is flashing
behavior. To my knowledge, no Okean has ever exhibited this dramatic
flashing. Which, by itself, would lead me to question the suggestion
(made in an article in Sky&Telescope(??) a few years ago) that Tselinas
resemble Okeans in up-close appearance (an Okean drawing appears in
"Europe & Asia in Space, 1991-2", by Nick Johnson). The same reason leads
me to doubt the suggestion by Nick Johnson that the Tselinas are
gravity-gradiant stabilized. Paul Maley had some intelligent comments
concerning this issue which I don't really understand, but which seemed to
support Nick Johnson. I have never pestered either of these gentlemen to
clarify the issue. Please note that me questioning them is analogous to a
four-year-old questioning me, because of their far greater knowledge from
inside the space industry. I do see sudden onset flashing, followed by
steady loss of angular momentum, which leads me to question that gravity
is involved as a stabilizing force. I think the Tselina-Ds may have been
called Ferret-Ds, perhaps by Western intelligence analysts.
The idea is a fairly simple one. Do the radio data correlate with the
visual data? If C* 1953 and C* 1933 abruptly began flashing (presumably
because they abruptly began tumbling) as the PPAS data indicates, why? An
hypothesis is that they suddenly lost attitude control, possibly due to
catastrophic failure or possibly due to normal end of life. Have all
Tselina-Ds displayed this behavior? I have little info about the
intervals of operation of the Tselina-Ds, (just the general info provided
by the Kettering Group to Nick Johnson for the very useful "Soviet Year in
Space", etc., series). Perhaps they have characteristic lifetimes.
Perhaps the ones that have flashed are also distinguishable from within
the RF data. The signal reception times would have to be specific to the
week or the month to allow an analysis. Whether additional specificity
would show even more, I cannot predict. Also, it may be that there are
some clues in the brightness data supplied by Russell Eberst and Rainer
Kracht.
(When I first became interested, after discovering the flashing behavior
of C* 1933, it seemed, from my uninformed seat in the arena, that there
might be more launches. This now seems very doubtful.)
Your table is very good (C* 2151 is 91-42A). This table lists all the
Tselina-D objects which I know anything about, and also 11 Okean objects
(f flags objects which are known to have exhibited flashing behavior):
10973U 78- 67A 1025 ELINT?? not clear if this was a Tselina
11266U 79- 11A 1076 predecessor of Okean-OE
11671U 80- 5A 1151 predecessor of Okean-OE
12785U 81- 82A 1300 Tselina-D
12987U 81-117A 1328 Tselina-D
13271U 82- 59A 1378 Tselina-D
13552U 82- 92A 1408 Tselina-D
14032U 83- 37A 1455 Tselina-D
14147U 83- 61A 1470 Tselina-D
14372U 83- 99A 1500 Okean-OE prototype
14551U 83-122A 1515 Tselina-D
14699U 84- 13A 1536 Tselina-D
14819U 84- 27A 1544 Tselina-D
15331U 84-105A 1602 Okean-OE prototype
15369U 84-111A 1606 Tselina-D
15494U 85- 9A 1626 Tselina-D
15592U 85- 20A 1633 Tselina-D
15889U 85- 58A 1666 Tselina-D
15944U 85- 69A 1674 Tselina-D
16262U 85-108A 1703 f Tselina-D
16326U 85-113A 1707 Tselina-D
16495U 86- 6A 1726 Tselina-D
16611U 86- 18A 1733 Tselina-D
16719U 86- 34A 1743 Tselina-D
16791U 86- 46A 1758 Tselina-D
16881U 86- 55A 1766 Okean-OE prototype
16986U 86- 74A 1782 Tselina-D
17191U 86- 97A 1805 Tselina-D
17295U 87- 3A 1812 Tselina-D
17566U 87- 24A 1825 Tselina-D
17911U 87- 38A 1842 Tselina-D
18152U 87- 55A 1862 Tselina-D
18214U 87- 62A 1869 Okean-OE prototype
18421U 87- 88A 1892 f Tselina-D
18748U 88- 1A 1908 Tselina-D
18958U 88- 20A 1933 f Tselina-D
19210U 88- 50A 1953 f Tselina-D
19274U 88- 56A Okean 1 Okean-O
19573U 88- 93A 1975 Tselina-D
20465U 90- 10A 2058 f Tselina-D
20510U 90- 18A Okean 2 Okean-O
21397U 91- 39A Okean 3 Okean-O
21422U 91- 42A 2151 f Tselina-D
22236U 92- 80A 2221 f Tselina-D
22286U 92- 94A 2228 Tselina-D
22626U 93- 24A 2242 f Tselina-D
23317U 94- 66A Okean 1-7 Okean-O? Okean-M?
23657U 95- 46A Sich 1 Okean-O1
I can also supply TLEs for these, if anyone thinks it desirable, though
they are routinely available from the usual sources, Molczan, OIG, etc.
I have seen 15592U 85- 20A 1633 recorded at both 153.420 MHz and 153.480
MHz. Perhaps it was received on both? Also, I've been led to believe
that an object launched 19940525, which failed to orbit, may have been
intended to replace 19573U 88- 93A 1975.
I am very interested in hearing from anyone with data bearing on the dates
of operation of these spacecraft, particularly the Tselinas. I know that
the issue of frequencies is crucial to monitors, but I have no knowledge
of this matter. I am therefore, possibly naively, interested in
monitoring at any frequency. Also, it doesn't bother me if the frequency
monitored is a harmonic of the fundamental frequency; nor does the
modulation bother me one way or the other, CW is fine. I may learn enough
to care about these matters, but haven't yet :-).
Another thing I don't care about is whether the designation is Kosmos,
Cosmos, K, C, K., C., C*, C-, Cos, or what have you. I would be quite
willing to change to any proposed standard which begins to gather
significant strength as a standard.
My list of Tselina-Ds does not include objects launched by the A-1 launch
vehicle thru 1983, nor any launched prior to 1981 (except C* 1025). There
are numerous objects in smaller (than the ones I list) orbits at
inclinations of 81.2, going back, as Phillip Clark says, to C* 389 (he
suggests between his lines that C* 389 initiated the program). It may
well be that the RF signature of the A-1 (and prior) launched objects is
very similar or identical to that from the later F-2 launched objects I
list. (Knowing what little I know, I'd have to assume that Nick Johnson's
F-2 is Phillip Clark's "three-stage Tsyklon").
But I have not investigated the A-1 (and prior) objects. I have 3
specific fears about these objects:
1) there may be little about them in PPAS (but I haven't looked),
2) they may not flash anymore because they have spun down under the usual
eddy current damping (apparently observed in C* 1933, C* 1953, etc.)
3) (however similar the RF signatures) they may be physically quite
different than the F-2 launched spacecraft, and therefore not comparable
in brightness behavior.
Still, these would be worth looking into. Here are some candidates,
chosen merely on the basis of size and inclination of orbit:
3835 69- 29A ?? ?? ??
4119 69- 84A ?? ?? ??
4393 70- 37A ?? ?? ??
4583 70- 85A ?? ?? ??
4813 70-113A 389 Tselina-D
5117 71- 28A 405 ??
5143 71- 31B ?? ?? ??
5328 71- 59B ?? ?? ??
5853 72- 11B ?? ?? ??
7418 74- 66B ?? ?? ??
7969 75- 56B ?? ?? ??
8128 75- 76B ?? ?? ??
8755 76- 24B ?? ?? ??
9854 77- 15B ?? ?? ??
10135 77- 61B ?? ?? ??
10362 77- 91A 955 ??
10561 78- 4A 975 ??
10860 78- 45A 1005 ??
11055 78- 94A 1043 ??
11155 78-117A 1063 ??
11266 79- 11A 1076 ??
11268 79- 12A 1077 ??
11331 79- 32A 1093 ??
11458 79- 67B ?? ?? ??
11629 79- 99A 1145 Tselina-D
11682 80- 8A 1154 Tselina-D
11821 80- 44A 1184 Tselina-D
11932 80- 69A 1206 Tselina-D
12071 80- 93A 1222 Tselina-D
12154 81- 8A 1242 Tselina-D
12464 81- 46A 1271 Tselina-D
12903 81-103A 1315 Tselina-D
13067 82- 13A 1340 Tselina-D
13120 82- 27A 1346 Tselina-D
13153 82- 39A 1356 Tselina-D
13402 82- 79A 1400 Tselina-D
13770 83- 3A 1437 Tselina-D
13818 83- 10A 1441 Tselina-D
Though long glints of the sort reported by Leigh Palmer do not necessarily
require any angular momentum, C* 1953 is still flashing. I observed a
period of 7.65 seconds as recently as August 8th.
PPAS(beginning):
Walter I. Nissen, Jr., CDP, dk058@cleveland.freenet.edu, 55 Barrett RD #808,
Berea, OH 44017-1657, USA, 440-243-4980, -81d 51.823', 41d 22.413', 256m, 7x35
92- 80 A 97-08-07 9:19:28.6 WN 125.7 .7 1 126. irreg F'A', C* 2221
88- 50 A 97-08-08 2:55:14.3 WN 76.5 .5 10 7.65 irreg Fs, C* 1953
The PPAS summary above is derived from this complex OBS:
C* 2221 19970807
9 18 11.86 begin obs, about mag 5
brightened steadily to about mag 3
19 28.57 F about mag -1
definitely dimmer dropping to mag 5 or 6
21 34.26 A w/instantaneous brightening
dimmed rapidly
36.27 reached about mag 6, leveled
dimmed
9 21 52 end obs, lost to sky background about mag 7
I never saw the object at this pass:
*** 1997 Aug 9 *** Times are UT *** 129 934
H M S TIM AL AZI C U MAG REVS HGT SHD RNG EW PHS R A DEC
22236 C* 2221 3.0 kT 2
8 34 44 .0 42 95 C 40 3.9 50.9 647 413 912 1.1 104 349 23.0
Apparently the phase angle (and/or the attitude of the spacecraft) was
unfavorable enough to extinguish my chances of seeing it. I
triple-checked and don't think I failed due to morning metabolism.
Here are the latest OIG TLEs for the objects prominently mentioned:
1933
1 18958U 88020A 97233.31730947 .00000220 00000-0 23785-4 0 3613
2 18958 82.5382 158.7809 0018702 118.4923 241.8200 14.83355406509779
1953
1 19210U 88050A 97232.65409749 .00000195 00000-0 21375-4 0 977
2 19210 82.5253 98.7288 0024077 88.6817 271.7157 14.82153415496058
2221
1 22236U 92080A 97232.21115399 +.00000201 +00000-0 +27062-4 0 01714
2 22236 082.5126 355.4576 0024001 059.3308 301.0268 14.74014290254835
Cheers.
Walter Nissen dk058@cleveland.freenet.edu
-81.8637, 41.3735, 256m elevation
P.S. Bart, I just read your message about the topicality of radio
discussion in SeeSat-L, and hope that you believe as I do, that my recent
radio discussion falls into one of two acceptable (but not overly
encouraged) areas:
1) what you need to know to make good astrometric positional OBS and
2) co-operation of monitors in different parts of the frequency spectrum.
---
Turn out the light, turn on the night!