Decaying Soyuz rocket and debris

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 6 Aug 1997 21:02:31 +0100

The latest OIG elsets for the rocket which launched Soyuz TM-26, and an
associated piece of "debris" (?) are:
Soyuz TM-26 r                                    213 x 183 km
1 24887U 97038B   97218.37932591  .01669791  12099-4  39994-3 0    84
2 24887  51.6224 194.0594 0023032  69.3543 290.9975 16.27890585   117
Soyuz TM-26 deb                                  256 x 178 km
1 24888U 97038C   97218.69327339  .05545288  11981-4  17166-2 0   148
2 24888  51.6069 192.3092 0059056  78.8486 281.7861 16.20998816   172

My SatEvo analysis of the available elsets for the rocket suggest that
it will decay at about August 9.0. Predicted elsets:
Soyuz TM-26 r                                    206 x 180 km
1 24887U 97038B   97218.87010669  .02134214  26998-2  43164-3 0 90062
2 24887  51.6198 191.3187 0020096  75.4009 284.8219 16.29817848   203
Soyuz TM-26 r                                    204 x 178 km
1 24887U 97038B   97219.05399887  .02295281  31731-2  43110-3 0 90069
2 24887  51.6196 190.2933 0019193  76.1667 284.0467 16.30631582   233
Soyuz TM-26 r                                    201 x 177 km
1 24887U 97038B   97219.23779560  .02486851  37936-2  43047-3 0 90066
2 24887  51.6193 189.2672 0018246  76.9331 283.2719 16.31509451   266
Soyuz TM-26 r                                    197 x 175 km
1 24887U 97038B   97219.42148906  .02719019  46799-2  42975-3 0 90062
2 24887  51.6190 188.2403 0017248  77.7002 282.4929 16.32464293   291

The "C" object will probably decay first, I calculate at about August
8.0. Predictions:
Soyuz TM-26 deb                                  250 x 176 km
1 24888U 97038C   97218.87813591  .05263138  11682-1  14519-2 0 90120
2 24888  51.6096 191.2848 0056201  78.5782 282.0525 16.22586844   205
Soyuz TM-26 deb                                  241 x 173 km
1 24888U 97038C   97219.06277031  .06028581  16311-1  14567-2 0 90124
2 24888  51.6090 190.2647 0051100  79.3406 281.2346 16.24663618   232
Soyuz TM-26 deb                                  230 x 171 km
1 24888U 97038C   97219.24714948  .07149663  25241-1  14639-2 0 90125
2 24888  51.6083 189.2427 0045439  80.1045 280.4081 16.27078832   266
Soyuz TM-26 deb                                  218 x 167 km
1 24888U 97038C   97219.43122615  .08981985  44391-1  14757-2 0 90120
2 24888  51.6074 188.2185 0038975  80.8701 279.5706 16.30016102   291

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
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