Decay over aircraft in the Pacific.

Bjoern Gimle@tt-tech.se (Gimle@tt-tech.se")
Tue, 27 Aug 1996 11:38:26 +0200

To: Mike, Alan, Dan, Rob

Mike McCants suggested that the observation from aircraft over the
Pacific
on Aug.22 (?) at 11:30 UT (?) was the #24281 Progress rocket decay on
Aug.21.

It seems possible that the pilot, nearing midnight local time,
and the international date line, was thinking of the next day.

But if the position 1200 miles E of Japan is correct, #24281 should
have passed behind the aircraft, from left to right side ( "7:30 to
1:30" referring to the eastward heading of the aircraft?)

Why don't you mention #23797 Raduga 33? It could have passed at roughly
the same time, ahead of the plane(s), but in the same direction?

The final elsets of #23797 from OIG show some jumping in MM (and ndot2)
when graphed, but no great acceleration of MM before Aug.21.33

I believe it should have decayed later than #24281, possibly Aug.22,
but not as late as 11 UT.

Tonight, I will post MM charts and SkyMap stereographic space views
of the tracks of #23797 and #24281 on my www pages, but I think we
could use more accurate time (and date!) of the aircraft observation,
and the position relative to the aircraft, and the results of a
(SatEvo?) integration matching the last four or so elsets,
to settle this.


Alan Pickup wrote :

< Raduga 33 SL-12 r2                                                    
< 1 23797U 96010D   96234.28575987 3.12322010  84747+1  21592-2 0 93010 
< 2 23797  47.6637 196.4978 0360810  79.3348 284.7073 15.79868877  5551 

< The evolution shows decay at August 21.35, but can it last that long? 

<                 --------------------------------------                

< The latest elset for the decaying Soyuz r is:                         
< Soyuz r                                                               
< 1 24281U 96047B   96233.55433304  .03550880  12247-4  44824-3 0   246 
< 2 24281  51.6161 158.9298 0011951 110.1695 250.0612 16.34918931   495 

< My analysis indicates decay at about August 21.65 and predicts the    
< following elsets:                                                     
< Soyuz r                                                               
< 1 24281U 96047B   96234.04269818  .05703091  24680-1  44593-3 0 90247 
< 2 24281  51.6149 156.1803 0008913 112.2236 247.8709 16.39213443   572 
< Soyuz r                                                               
< 1 24281U 96047B   96234.28630597  .08527130  61880-1  41944-3 0 90240 
< 2 24281  51.6139 154.8011 0006915 113.2541 246.8195 16.42578287   614 
< Soyuz r                                                               
< 1 24281U 96047B   96234.52925962  .20032827  42274+0  28936-3 0 90248 
< 2 24281  51.6122 153.4170 0004036 114.2884 245.7538 16.48641211   657 

< Mike wrote :                                                          

< Subject: elset for Soyuz rocket                                       

< 1 24281U 96047B   96233.55434296  .03453704  12247-4  43799-3 0   233 
< 2 24281  51.6164 158.9283 0011976 110.2895 249.9998 16.34875358   491 

< Decay will be very, very soon.                                        

< My guess is August 22 about 10 to 12 hours UT.                        

< [This is an error on my part - I should have typed August 21.]        

< Second post:                                                          

< Subject: Raduga 33 rocket perigee passes                              

< Predictions for the time of perigee tonight:                          

< Aug. 20 at 21:36 UT                                                   
< Aug. 20 at 23:18 UT                                                   
< Aug. 21 at  0:55 UT                                                   
< Aug. 21 at  2:36 UT                                                   
< Aug. 21 at  4:18 UT                                                   

< I expect decay about 12 hours UT on August 21.                        


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