SatEvo decay list #12

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 24 Aug 1996 01:12:25 +0100

SatEvo decay list #12  (issued 1996 August 24)

Here are my latest SatEvo decay predictions. The "Actual?" 
decay times are estimated from the final available elements.
A apparent fall in atmospheric density at the ~450 km perigee 
height of many of the Pegasus debriz objects has given several
them a new lease of life.

<PRE>
   #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay -------
                                          Predicted   Actual?

 12070   80- 92 D   Molniya 1-48 SL-6 r2   (Note 1)   August  7.93
 24281   96- 47 B   Soyuz r                           August 21.55
 23797   96- 10 D   Raduga 33 SL-12 r2                August 21.60
 24226   94- 29 KZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     (Note 2)   August 21?
 23962   94- 29 K   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     August 25.4
 24275   96- 45 C   Molniya platform?   September  4
 24251   94- 29 MA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September  6
 23927   86- 17 LP  GFZ 1 deb           September 12
 24037   94- 29 CJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 13
 24022   94- 29 BT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 14
 23959   94- 29 G   STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 17
 23956   94- 29 D   STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 20
 23926   86- 17 LN  GFZ 1 deb           September 30
 24219   94- 29 KS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb  September 30
 24274   96- 45 B   Molniya SL-6 r?       October  1
  4641   70- 25 Z   Thorad Agena D deb    October  5
 24028   94- 29 BZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October  7
 23988   94- 29 AJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 12
 24160   94- 29 HK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 23
 23888   86- 17 KG  GFZ 1 deb             October 24
 24056   94- 29 DD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 24
 16982   86- 73 B   NOAA 10 deb           October 29
 23856   86- 17 KF  GFZ 1 deb             October 29
  7047   73- 86 AP  Delta 1 deb          November  2
 23869   96- 31 B   MSTI-3 Pegasus r     November  2
 23689   86- 17 JL  GFZ 1 deb            November  5
 13682   81- 28 BE  Cosmos 1260 deb      November  8
 24063   94- 29 DL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 16
 12347   80- 30 V   Cosmos 1174 deb      November 17
 23946   96- 38 B   USA 125 Titan IV r   November 17 (Note 7)
 24200   94- 29 KB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 22
 24011   94- 29 BG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 23

</PRE>

Notes:

1. #12070: One I missed at the time.

2. #24226: No elsets published since August 12 - presumed lost.

3. The following objects were predicted to decay in my previous list
but may survive until December or later: #21794, #24018, #24031,
#24047, #24048, #24060 and #24220. Of these, the inclusion of #24220
was my mistake - it may survive until 1998.

4. Recent NASA 60d decay forecasts have included the COBE debriz 
"#22972 = 89- 89 BX" with decay predicted for October 7 or 8. 
The latest elements I can obtain from OIG for #22972 date from 
1995 March and lead me to suggest that it decayed around six months 
later. Also, object #22972 is 89- 89 AX not BX.
                                     ^
5. #8074 = 66- 56 H (Pageos 1 deb H) may decay during the next month 
or two. Solar radiation pressure has halved its perigee height
to 384 km during the past 97 days and it is now falling at about 6 km
per week. Alas, SatEvo does not model SRP or other lunisolar
perturbations so I can't provide a realistic forecast at present.

6. #23800 = 96-  5 E (Gorizont 31 SL-12 deb) may also decay during
the period. Its perigee is at 131 km, having fallen about 15 km during
the past 24 days. Elsets show large variations (some certainly 
fictional) in both mean motion and ndot.

7. #23946 prediction based on the following elements by Pierre Nierinck
via Russell Eberst, converted to tle format by me:
USA 125 Titan IV r                               291 x 264
1 23946U 96038B   96235.13668180  .00071075  00000-0  00000-0 0    12
2 23946  54.9772 302.0185 0019822 112.6261 247.5836 15.98932046    13


Bjorn Gimle maintains a WWW resource of decay information at
                http://www.algonet.se/~b_gimle/

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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