Raduga r and Soyuz r decay predictions

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Not before time, OIG has provided three more elsets for #23797, though
the most recent is still more than a day old:

Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96229.92884167  .29670269  19159-4  12510-2 0  2845
2 23797  47.8090 211.5486 2628841  65.1288 319.9074 10.54074974  5016
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96231.11819941  .39169775  22438-4  14323-2 0  2896
2 23797  47.8028 208.3436 2269972  68.1908 315.8698 11.31959729  5141
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96232.14104589  .43075490  25460-4  12177-2 0  3018
2 23797  47.8019 205.1999 1912245  71.1740 308.6099 12.12139647  5262

These show it running increasingly late with respect to my SatEvo 
predictions, by 4, 20 and 52 minutes respectively. I have to admit,
therefore, that Ted Molczan's complementary remarks concerning my 
elsets are quite undeserved :(

So what did Steve Bolton observe? The elset I posted yesterday 
(quoted by Ted) was:
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96233.01776407  .97557836  28856+0  16460-2 0 92774
2 23797  47.6011 201.6498 1165766  74.4749 298.0744 13.84811729  5380
which predicts a pass three minutes earlier than the object watched by
Steve.

A new SatEvo analysis using just the three recent OIG elsets 
extrapolates to the following equivalent elset...
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96233.01403210  .61591429  91178-1  12794-2 0 92843
2 23797  47.6761 202.1665 1502628  73.9261 302.0624 13.06152706  5378
which has an equator crossing time (only) five minutes earlier still,
but indicates that it was running a full revolution behind my former
prediction (rev 537 vs 538) and had a rather longer period (110m vs
104m). I havn't predicted the pass for Saint John N.B., but I suspect
that this must have been what Steve saw.

If it was already glowing brightly almost a day ago, it may have broken
up and decayed by now. If not, here are some further SatEvo elsets:
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96234.02438578 1.35617254  70595+0  14273-2 0 93019
2 23797  47.6934 197.8594 0765113  78.0540 290.4157 14.81537904  5514
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96234.28575987 3.12322010  84747+1  21592-2 0 93010
2 23797  47.6637 196.4978 0360810  79.3348 284.7073 15.79868877  5551

The evolution shows decay at August 21.35, but can it last that long?

                --------------------------------------

The latest elset for the decaying Soyuz r is:
Soyuz r
1 24281U 96047B   96233.55433304  .03550880  12247-4  44824-3 0   246
2 24281  51.6161 158.9298 0011951 110.1695 250.0612 16.34918931   495

My analysis indicates decay at about August 21.65 and predicts the
following elsets:
Soyuz r
1 24281U 96047B   96234.04269818  .05703091  24680-1  44593-3 0 90247
2 24281  51.6149 156.1803 0008913 112.2236 247.8709 16.39213443   572
Soyuz r
1 24281U 96047B   96234.28630597  .08527130  61880-1  41944-3 0 90240
2 24281  51.6139 154.8011 0006915 113.2541 246.8195 16.42578287   614
Soyuz r
1 24281U 96047B   96234.52925962  .20032827  42274+0  28936-3 0 90248
2 24281  51.6122 153.4170 0004036 114.2884 245.7538 16.48641211   657

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224

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