re: Raduga 33 not seen

Walter Nissen (dk058@cleveland.Freenet.Edu)
Mon, 19 Aug 1996 21:40:41 -0400

> From: jvarney@mail2.quiknet.com (Jim Varney) 
> Subject: Raduga 33 not seen 
> Date: Sun Aug 18 12:18:49 1996 
 
> Attempted to observe Raduga 33 on Aug 18 @ 0325 UT with sun 6 degrees below 
> horizon. 
> Predicted range with the elset posted by Mike McCants (thanks for the tip, Mike) 
> was only about 120 miles, so I had high hopes.  Looked for it several minutes on 
> either side of predicted time, but was a no-show. 
 
> Jim Varney      |  121^ 23' 54" W,  38^ 27' 28" N   |           Sacramento, CA 
> Member, SeeSat-L|            Elev. 31 ft.           |jvarney@mail2.quiknet.com 
 
Hmmm...  I'm having a hard time tracking this.  I assume you mean to refer 
to Raduga 33 r2, and not the payload.  With objects deep in the atmosphere 
like this, the accuracy of elsets can degenerate horribly outside of a 
narrow window.  You don't say what you mean by a few minutes, but that 
might not be enough. 
 
Using these elsets from Mike McCants and Alan Pickup's posts here on 
SeeSat-L: 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96228.13569310 +.25637181 +16119-4 +12535-2 0 02748 
2 23797 047.8319 215.7173 3102646 061.2293 326.4709 09.54325922004830 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96229.05467116 +.26361494 +17384-4 +13165-2 0 02771 
2 23797 047.8010 213.6600 2868208 063.1898 323.7229 10.02738645004926 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96230.02026870  .34378235  20746-1  10964-2 0 92774 
2 23797  47.7595 211.3063 2580813  65.3926 319.2471 10.65791595  5023 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96231.01682533  .42484856  35644-1  11759-2 0 92770 
2 23797  47.7135 208.5812 2232747  67.9484 314.1969 11.41665883  5133 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96232.02472730  .57164495  67004-1  13099-2 0 92772 
2 23797  47.6621 205.4087 1789597  70.9312 307.5467 12.40750873  5251 
 
and this input to QuickSat: 
 1996  8 Year, month number 
 17 17 Start date, end date 
  -.8   .8 Start time, end time 
   38.4578  121.3983       31.    Varney, CA <---------------------- 
  0 UT  correction and time zone name for UT to CDT 
 F True means generate Radio predictions 
 1950 Epoch of predicted RA, Dec 
 13.5 Magnitude limit 
  4 Altitude cut-off value 
 0.1 The search/step parameter value 
 F True means accept only the most recent elements for each object 
 F True means ignore shadow test 
 F  0 True means generate multiple prediction points, how many each way 
 F True means output distance values in miles 
 F True means generate a blank line before each object's prediction. 
none         Intrinsic magnitudes input file 
rad.tk       Output file 
rad          Elements input file 
EOF 
 
generates this mishmash: 
  38.458 121.398   31.    Varney, CA <--------- 1950 13.5  4 F F F F F 
 
***  1996 Aug  18  *** Times are UT ***   345 1231 
 H  M  S  TIM AL AZI C   U  MAG   REVS  HGT SHD  RNG  EW PHS  R A   DEC 
23797 Raduga 33 SL-1 
 4 56 14  4.4 24 348 C  75 21.7   -9.0  463 215  995 1.3 120  912  72.3 
23797 Raduga 33 SL-1 
 7  2 41  3.4  6 309    85 25.9   -8.0  500  31 2033  .6 128 1315  33.6 
23797 Raduga 33 SL-1 
10  1  3 23.6  6 140   162 26.3   26.2 1553  59 4107  .4  72  258 -32.6 
10  6 17 29.9  5 142   163 26.6   35.2 1511  41 4092  .4  72  258 -34.1 
23797 Raduga 33 SL-1 
11 19 36  1.6 13 180   162 24.0    6.2 1584  54 3528  .5  48  058 -38.8 
11 21 21 11.4 12 180   163 24.3   17.2 1550  56 3589  .5  50  1 4 -40.3 
11 27 21  1.7 18 192   159 23.5   -5.8 1676  39 3356  .6  38  015 -33.4 
23797 Raduga 33 SL-1 
12  8 13 25.4 10 205   163 24.5   27.2 1564  56 3776  .5  34 2342 -36.7 
12 14 10 29.9  8 207   164 24.9   36.2 1526  44 3849  .5  34 2339 -37.6 
 
(if you aren't used to QS, the magnitudes shown are artificial and don't 
necessarily suggest an object difficult to see in binoculars in a dark 
sky, and in fairness to QS I didn't even bother to see if there is an 
entry in the .MAG file which would produce "valid" magnitudes, nor did I 
even bother to create an entry guesstimated from the RCS of 26 m^2), 
 
but at least you can see how divergent the results from various elsets can 
be. 
 
Using only the elset closest to the desired pass, the one with epoch 
96231, I see only one "predicted" pass: 
 
  38.458 121.398   31.    Varney, CA <--------- 1950 13.5  4 F F F F F 
 
***  1996 Aug  18  *** Times are UT ***   345 1231 
 
 H  M  S  TIM AL AZI C   U  MAG   REVS  HGT SHD  RNG  EW PHS  R A   DEC 
23797 Raduga 33 SL-1 
11 19 36  1.6 13 180   162 24.0    6.2 1584  54 3528  .5  48  058 -38.8 
 
and none of this "activity" appears to occur around the time you looked. 
 
 
I assume everybody's already seen the new "latest" from Alan Pickup: 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96233.01776407  .97557836  28856+0  16460-2 0 92774 
2 23797  47.6011 201.6498 1165766  74.4749 298.0744 13.84811729  5380 
Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 
1 23797U 96010D   96233.29966095 1.31849363  55988+0  18869-2 0 92777 
2 23797  47.5783 200.3952 0896799  75.6602 294.1224 14.48531738  5428 
 
 
Cheers. 
 
Walter Nissen                   dk058@cleveland.freenet.edu

---

They don't all occult Capella.