Re: Cerise collision

Bjoern Gimle@tt-tech.se (Gimle@tt-tech.se")
Mon, 12 Aug 1996 11:17:49 +0200

I obtained the current elset for each of the 1986-19 XX fragments listed
in the June OIG SatSit report. 
( 19435 18461 18290 18231 18212 18208 18196 17988 17981 17815 17703
17702
  17608 17551 17543 17478 17471 17459 17429 17426 17423 17353 17342
17324
  17323 17316 17311 17233 17219 17212 17208 17206 17203 17201 17199
17198
  17189 17184 17155 17154 17153 17152 17131 17130 17129 17128 17124
17123
  17122 17121 17120 17118 17117 17116 17110 16616 16615 16614 )
Then I ran Rob Matson's COLA program for those, against the Cerise elset
after the suspect one, posted by Allen Thomsson :
Cerise
1 23606U          96211.46207215  .00000442           87023-4 0  2170
2 23606  98.1031 147.7571 0008828  57.9183 302.2887 14.67267229 56919

The most interesting one appears to be #18208, having nearly the same
Mean Motion, and making several close passes (around July 23-24):
86019RF
1 18208U 86019RF  96221.30560747 +.00001275 +00000-0 +23714-3 0 05727
2 18208 098.4622 351.2184 0014567 082.7015 277.5846 14.66895566511576

I will attempt to get the last five elsets for most of the listed
pieces today, hoping to get ones closer to the incident, before
new updates are added.

Here are all close passes (<100 km) from July 15-31, one per object,
except for #18208  : 

   Date    Local Time Norad           Name           Range (km)  EphAge

 7/24/1996  8:09:49.7 18208 The latest set =              1.7    -14.97
 7/24/1996  9:48:02.5 18208 The latest set =              2.0    -14.90
 7/24/1996 11:26:15.4 18208 The latest set =              4.0    -14.83
 7/23/1996 19:53:14.6 18208 The latest set =              4.3    -15.48
 7/24/1996  0:29:46.5 17201 The latest set =             10.2    -15.11
 7/20/1996 11:27:01.8 17342 The latest set =             14.2    -19.89
 7/19/1996 22:28:03.0 18461 The latest set =             18.9    -19.45
 7/16/1996  1:58:18.5 17124 The latest set =             28.0    -23.38
 7/30/1996 14:17:24.7 17152 The latest set =             32.4     -9.74
 7/24/1996 10:24:25.8 17120 The latest set =             38.9    -14.89
 7/30/1996  1:23:00.9 17123 The latest set =             40.2     -9.35
 7/20/1996  9:04:58.6 17184 The latest set =             40.7    -19.06
 7/15/1996 11:12:47.3 17110 The latest set =             41.7    -24.48
 7/28/1996  5:07:42.4 17311 The latest set =             44.3    -10.96
 7/27/1996 17:41:46.2 17131 The latest set =             48.8    -11.47
 7/17/1996  7:16:00.2 17353 The latest set =             53.5    -22.85
 7/15/1996  2:54:13.4 17323 The latest set =             54.1    -24.03
 7/21/1996 17:36:50.0 17988 The latest set =             55.2    -18.46
 7/18/1996  8:38:07.9 17703 The latest set =             56.0    -19.79
 7/19/1996 15:49:52.1 17189 The latest set =             62.6    -20.54
 7/26/1996  4:49:27.8 17471 The latest set =             66.1    -12.99
 7/19/1996 10:50:55.2 18212 The latest set =             69.9    -19.65
 7/18/1996 16:53:04.3 17208 The latest set =             74.0    -20.68
 7/21/1996  4:40:52.6 18290 The latest set =             75.0    -19.29
 7/18/1996 14:22:05.3 17154 The latest set =             97.3    -20.62


Using the July 24 elset for Cerise, and only debris that could be within
10 km vertically, I get :

 7/16/1996  1:58:20.1 17124 The latest set =             35.8    -23.38
 7/24/1996  0:29:46.6 17201 The latest set =             10.1    -15.11
 7/18/1996 16:53:05.2 17208 The latest set =             66.0    -20.68
 7/20/1996 11:27:02.2 17342 The latest set =              9.7    -19.89
 7/17/1996  7:16:01.5 17353 The latest set =             61.8    -22.85
 7/23/1996 19:53:14.7 18208 The latest set =              3.5    -15.48
 7/24/1996  9:48:02.8 18208 The latest set =              1.3    -14.90
 7/19/1996 22:28:03.5 18461 The latest set =             18.5    -19.45

-- 

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