RE: Omid decay estimates

From: Robert Holdsworth (
Date: Fri Apr 24 2009 - 05:28:31 UTC

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    Good work Ted!- Omid is less than 24 hours from decay.
    We have a good early morning non-illuminated pass at about 55 degrees elevation at 1437 UTC (0237 ON 25th local.)
    Looks as if it may last longer than that, but certainly worth checking.  
    If it did decay on that pass it could be  visible from a number of populated areas.  However the weather outlook is poor with a deep low pressure system passing over the area closest to the pass, apart from the fact that the time will limit the number of potential observers.
    New Zealand
    >The rate of decay has increased considerably, perhaps due in part to more
    >realistic decay terms emerging as the observed arc grows.
    >Using the epoch 09036.2 elements, I estimate decay of Omid ((09004A / 33506)) in
    >late April, and its rocket (09004B / 33507) in early June. Later elsets have
    >somewhat greater decay terms, so these estimates may also prove too long.
    >Uncertainty at least one month.
    Ted Molczan
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