TLE for Soyuz TMA-10

From: Ted Molczan (molczanssl@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Apr 06 2007 - 16:45:19 EDT

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    [This is a re-send of a message sent hours ago, that has yet to arrive at the
    list - T.M.]
    
    Antonín Vítek asked:
    
    > Any guess for TLE on the first two orbits after launch, please?
    
    The objects will not be visible from Europe optically, but the payload may be
    heard on radio.
    
    I have estimated elements based on those of Soyuz TMA-5 (04040A / 28444),
    launched on 2004 Oct 14 at 03:06 UTC, obtained from Jonathan McDowell's archive:
    
    http://www.planet4589.org/space/elements/28400/S28444
    
    http://www.planet4589.org/space/elements/28400/S28445
    
    Rotating Soyuz TMA-5's epoch 04288.74409498 elset and its rocket's
    04288.79749698 elset to the circumstances of the launch of Soyuz TMA-10, on 2007
    Apr 07 at 17:31 UTC, yields:
    
    Soyuz TMA-10                                        89.26 X 232 X 244
    1 73996U 73996A   07098.35902331  .00384271  88686-4  31737-3 0    66
    2 73996  51.6363 110.1457 0009110 188.4052 198.5660 16.13260573   108
    
    Soyuz TMA-10 r                                      88.43 X 189 X 205
    1 73997U 73996B   07098.39819142  .05648187  12127-4  13571-2 0    97
    2 73997  51.6567 104.7733 0012447  68.9169 291.3150 16.28462240   106
    
    There is some variation among launches initial orbit and rendezvous manoeuvres,
    so the actual orbits may well differ from the above, which should only be taken
    as a rough guide. The rocket's orbit more or less defines the earliest time that
    the Soyuz my be heard.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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