Re: re-entry prediction for 22312, 93-002D

From: Robert Holdsworth (
Date: Tue Apr 04 2006 - 06:36:41 EDT

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    I have referred to the email below as designates the object correctly as 
    22312 not  23112 as shown in the other email.
    The pass in question is in the early morning Australian time - Australian 
    Eastern Time for it is 0535.
    Calsky predicts decay earlier at 1707 and though it no longer shows the pass 
    here around 1801  UTC it shows the  ground track after possible decay 
    definitely pointing in this direction!
    Space-track predictions are of course forbidden territory here but suffice 
    it to say that a decay over or near to Australia or New Zealand some time 
    between about 1700 and 1930  UTC appears to be a distinct possibility and 
    well worth an early start to check on.
    New Zealand
    UTC plus 12.
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: "Ed Cannon" <>
    To: <>
    Sent: Tuesday, April 04, 2006 5:29 PM
    Subject: re-entry prediction for 22312, 93-002D
    >I tried to send this a while ago, but it hasn't appeared yet.
    > Since it's time-sensitive, I'm going to try again and risk
    > redundancy....
    > The Aerospace Corporation has an online prediction of the
    > re-entry of 93-002D (22312, the upper stage from the launch
    > of Molniya 1-85), which includes the predicted ground track,
    > ground visibility area, etc.:
    > They predict re-entry at 19:35 April 4 UTC (plus or minus
    > seven hours) over eastern Australia at night.  That's
    > between seven and 21 hours from now, roughly (now being
    > almost 5:30 UTC on April 4).
    > Ed Cannon - Austin, Texas, USA
    > -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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