Cosmos 41 decayed

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Apr 09 2004 - 08:25:00 EDT

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    Report time: 11:15 UTC
    1964-049D (#869) Cosmos 41
    
    SCC'S FINAL REPORT -prepared April 09,03:30 UTC - shows the decay on:
    09 April, 03:17 UTC +/- 07 minutes (61.0N, 14.0E) 
    ascending over Sweden.
    MPM + REENTRY delivered with the last ELSET 04100.061... and a special correction 
    for the ballistic coefficient (SFX 095, ap 030) the decay on:
    09 April, 03:20 UTC +/- 13 minutes (63.97N, 35.36E, Altitude 10.0 km)
    descending over the Barents Sea.
    
    Remarks: A difficult decayer. My last forecast (April 08, 19:00 UTC) was within
    02 minutes in excellent agreement with SCC'S following 06 HOURS BEFORE DECAY and 
    02 HOURS BEFORE DECAY messages - prepared April 08, 22:42 UTC and April 09, 02:40 UTC.
    Shortly after this SCC released on April 09, 02:48 UTC a new forecast that showed
    the decay one rev earlier.
    With a special program I compared the ELSET 04099.72668531 (17:27 UTC) with the 
    following reliable and final ELSET 04100.06144494 (01:29 UTC).The time of the closest 
    approach was April 08, 18:37 UTC with a Delta of 154.653 km. Until the final ELSET 
    epoch Delta increased to 2837.236 km ! This is an indication for a "catastrophic"
    decay. Also interesting: The predicted perigee times and altitudes near the decay:
    04099.726...   April 09, 03:15:55.47 UTC  -  99.897 km
    04100.061...   April 09, 03:05:07:55 UTC  -  89.331 km
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
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