Decay watch: 2003 April 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Apr 28 2003 - 15:41:39 EDT

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    Another update to my Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19332 = 88- 63 C = Insat 1C Ariane 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 28 00:08     Apr 29 22:46 +-1d         1.2 N    50.5 W
    SatEvo     Apr 28 19:05     May  1 02:09 +-19h
    
    Latest elset:
    Insat 1C Ariane 3 r                              767 x 144 km
    1 19332U 88063C   03118.42594366  .13124030 -28498-4  22127-2 0  6303
    2 19332   7.5668 150.7901 0455915 310.3571  45.7627 15.36945914192284
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23857 = 96- 27 A = BeppoSAX
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 27 23:50     Apr 29 19:29 +-1d         1.9 N     3.9 W
    SatEvo     Apr 28 19:15     Apr 30 05:35 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    BeppoSAX                                         223 x 219 km
    1 23857U 96027A   03118.37565778  .03062006  22127-1  20548-2 0  6440
    2 23857   3.9569   6.9386 0002837 281.4439  78.6211 16.19365736386012
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25240 = 98- 14 B = Intelsat 806 Atlas 2AS Centaur Rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 27 15:45     Apr 27 15:31 +-7m        13.0 N    96.0 W
    SatEvo     Apr 27 17:35     Apr 27 15:34 +-2h        16.4 N    84.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    Intlst 806Cn r   8.3  3.0  0.0  4.0 v   23       278 x 139 km
    1 25240U 98014B   03117.33583654  .17689934 -15804-4  91403-3 0  9107
    2 25240  22.4489 322.2274 0104996  21.1710 339.3112 16.24085078137797
    
    Note: The update records SCC's final decay estimate. My analysis
    from yesterday is unchanged.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27782 = 03- 16 B = Soyuz TMA-2 Soyuz rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 28 06:30     Apr 28 06:12 +-7m        34.0 N   110.0 E
    SatEvo     Apr 28 19:30     Apr 28 05:41 +-2h         2.8 N    28.3 W
    
    Final elset:
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    189 x 174 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03117.56642795  .06521570  12294-4  90065-3 0   118
    2 27782  51.6553 274.3637 0011854  68.3721 291.8568 16.34079807   207
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed over the Atlantic just after the
    northbound equator crossing at the end of this SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    138 x 133 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03118.17570038  .56052093  33572+1  49295-3 0 90149
    2 27782  51.6514 270.9188 0003869  70.9412 289.1007 16.51506020   300
    With no elsets released over its final few hours, the uncertainty
    remains rather large.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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