Decay watch: 2003 April 27

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Apr 27 2003 - 13:59:01 EDT

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    Today's update to my Decay Watch page. As ever, check there for more 
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19332 = 88- 63 C = Insat 1C Ariane 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 27 12:27     Apr 30 08:17 +-2d         7.4 N   127.6 W
    SatEvo     Apr 27 17:15     Apr 30 23:04 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Insat 1C Ariane 3 r                              876 x 145 km
    1 19332U 88063C   03117.44623849  .09889475 -27503-4  20101-2 0  6259
    2 19332   7.5653 158.3562 0530634 295.4238  59.1841 15.18497292192132
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 3 deg S at about 260 km in
    in the evening sky. It leaves eclipse near apogee and northern apex
    at 7 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23857 = 96- 27 A = BeppoSAX
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 26 15:23     Apr 29 11:35 +-2d         2.0 N     1.7 W
    SatEvo     Apr 27 17:25     Apr 30 08:20 +-19h
    
    Latest elset:
    BeppoSAX                                         235 x 232 km
    1 23857U 96027A   03117.57406701  .02143079  45317-2  16278-2 0  6385
    2 23857   3.9516  14.1177 0002546 281.3044  78.6698 16.14851552385885
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25240 = 98- 14 B = Intelsat 806 Atlas 2AS Centaur Rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 27 13:23     Apr 27 15:44 +-5h        20.1 N    67.9 W
    SatEvo     Apr 27 17:35     Apr 27 15:34 +-2h        16.4 N    84.1 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Intlst 806Cn r   8.3  3.0  0.0  4.0 v   23       278 x 139 km
    1 25240U 98014B   03117.33583654  .17689934 -15804-4  91403-3 0  9107
    2 25240  22.4489 322.2274 0104996  21.1710 339.3112 16.24085078137797
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed close to Honduras a short distance
    into the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Intlst 806Cn r   8.3  3.0  0.0  4.0 v   23       146 x 114 km
    1 25240U 98014B   03117.64072848 1.61041630  22561+2  80063-3 0 99107
    2 25240  22.4452 319.6753 0024420  25.6873 334.4338 16.53473072137840
    The latest, possibly final, elset has an epoch more than seven hours
    before this. SCC's final notice has yet to appear.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27782 = 03- 16 B = Soyuz TMA-2 Soyuz rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 27 08:59     Apr 28 07:19 +-14h       24.0 N    33.8 W
    SatEvo     Apr 27 17:45     Apr 28 05:48 +-5h        28.3 N     7.4 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    189 x 174 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03117.56642795  .06521570  12294-4  90065-3 0   118
    2 27782  51.6553 274.3637 0011854  68.3721 291.8568 16.34079807   207
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    178 x 165 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03117.81075469  .08963375  56775-1  82601-3 0 90114
    2 27782  51.6543 272.9913 0010023  69.3946 290.7129 16.37782442   248
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    161 x 151 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03118.05441226  .18332091  28524+0  66324-3 0 90118
    2 27782  51.6527 271.6137 0007317  70.4211 289.6579 16.43819009   281
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    153 x 145 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03118.11515466  .26452421  63387+0  55767-3 0 90117
    2 27782  51.6520 271.2680 0006218  70.6787 289.3885 16.46471946   297
    Soyuz TMA-2 r                                    140 x 134 km
    1 27782U 03016B   03118.17577230  .51318681  23971+1  49980-3 0 90113
    2 27782  51.6510 270.9214 0004529  70.9370 289.1119 16.50845231   306
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay northbound over NW Africa
    following the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev above. If it
    survives, it passes just W of Rome at 05:54 UTC and onwards to Kiev
    at 05:58.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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