Today's update to my Decay Watch page. As ever, check there for more
predicted elsets.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #19332 = 88- 63 C = Insat 1C Ariane 3 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Apr 27 12:27 Apr 30 08:17 +-2d 7.4 N 127.6 W
SatEvo Apr 27 17:15 Apr 30 23:04 +-1.2d
Latest elset:
Insat 1C Ariane 3 r 876 x 145 km
1 19332U 88063C 03117.44623849 .09889475 -27503-4 20101-2 0 6259
2 19332 7.5653 158.3562 0530634 295.4238 59.1841 15.18497292192132
Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 3 deg S at about 260 km in
in the evening sky. It leaves eclipse near apogee and northern apex
at 7 deg N before dawn.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23857 = 96- 27 A = BeppoSAX
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Apr 26 15:23 Apr 29 11:35 +-2d 2.0 N 1.7 W
SatEvo Apr 27 17:25 Apr 30 08:20 +-19h
Latest elset:
BeppoSAX 235 x 232 km
1 23857U 96027A 03117.57406701 .02143079 45317-2 16278-2 0 6385
2 23857 3.9516 14.1177 0002546 281.3044 78.6698 16.14851552385885
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25240 = 98- 14 B = Intelsat 806 Atlas 2AS Centaur Rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Apr 27 13:23 Apr 27 15:44 +-5h 20.1 N 67.9 W
SatEvo Apr 27 17:35 Apr 27 15:34 +-2h 16.4 N 84.1 W
Latest (final?) elset:
Intlst 806Cn r 8.3 3.0 0.0 4.0 v 23 278 x 139 km
1 25240U 98014B 03117.33583654 .17689934 -15804-4 91403-3 0 9107
2 25240 22.4489 322.2274 0104996 21.1710 339.3112 16.24085078137797
Note: I estimate that this decayed close to Honduras a short distance
into the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
Intlst 806Cn r 8.3 3.0 0.0 4.0 v 23 146 x 114 km
1 25240U 98014B 03117.64072848 1.61041630 22561+2 80063-3 0 99107
2 25240 22.4452 319.6753 0024420 25.6873 334.4338 16.53473072137840
The latest, possibly final, elset has an epoch more than seven hours
before this. SCC's final notice has yet to appear.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27782 = 03- 16 B = Soyuz TMA-2 Soyuz rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Apr 27 08:59 Apr 28 07:19 +-14h 24.0 N 33.8 W
SatEvo Apr 27 17:45 Apr 28 05:48 +-5h 28.3 N 7.4 W
Latest elset:
Soyuz TMA-2 r 189 x 174 km
1 27782U 03016B 03117.56642795 .06521570 12294-4 90065-3 0 118
2 27782 51.6553 274.3637 0011854 68.3721 291.8568 16.34079807 207
SatEvo prediction:
Soyuz TMA-2 r 178 x 165 km
1 27782U 03016B 03117.81075469 .08963375 56775-1 82601-3 0 90114
2 27782 51.6543 272.9913 0010023 69.3946 290.7129 16.37782442 248
Soyuz TMA-2 r 161 x 151 km
1 27782U 03016B 03118.05441226 .18332091 28524+0 66324-3 0 90118
2 27782 51.6527 271.6137 0007317 70.4211 289.6579 16.43819009 281
Soyuz TMA-2 r 153 x 145 km
1 27782U 03016B 03118.11515466 .26452421 63387+0 55767-3 0 90117
2 27782 51.6520 271.2680 0006218 70.6787 289.3885 16.46471946 297
Soyuz TMA-2 r 140 x 134 km
1 27782U 03016B 03118.17577230 .51318681 23971+1 49980-3 0 90113
2 27782 51.6510 270.9214 0004529 70.9370 289.1119 16.50845231 306
Note: I estimate that this will decay northbound over NW Africa
following the end of the final SatEvo-predicted rev above. If it
survives, it passes just W of Rome at 05:54 UTC and onwards to Kiev
at 05:58.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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