SCC has posted warnings for two new decayers from the Cosmso 2397 (aka
"Gonglomerate") launch. The following is adapted from my updated Decay
Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25240 = 98- 14 B = Intelsat 806 Atlas 2AS Centaur Rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Apr 25 11:21 Apr 27 09:49 +-1d 20.3 N 24.0 E
SatEvo Apr 25 18:20 Apr 27 20:07 +-18h
Latest elset:
Intlst 806Cn r 8.3 3.0 0.0 4.0 v 23 520 x 155 km
1 25240U 98014B 03115.39903711 .07784111 -14688-4 21483-2 0 8987
2 25240 22.4457 337.6249 0272150 353.3399 6.3539 15.77610892137480
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27776 = 03- 15 B = Cosmos 2397 Proton rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Apr 25 17:77 Apr 26 06:02 +-7h 0.5 N 27.7 W
SatEvo Apr 25 18:50 Apr 26 04:27 +-4h 14.0 S 16.0 W
Latest elsets:
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 172 x 164 km
1 27776U 03015B 03115.52049527 .05374252 12369-4 42802-3 0 120
2 27776 51.6456 279.5611 0006329 265.4635 94.5680 16.39175123 224
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 163 x 151 km
1 27776U 03015B 03115.70326157 -.39830893 12734-4 -14937-2 0 138
2 27776 51.6459 278.5307 0009155 247.4834 112.5317 16.43435789 252
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 162 x 151 km
1 27776U 03015B 03115.82492941 .09198314 77390-1 35435-3 0 90138
2 27776 51.6454 277.8407 0008180 247.9978 111.9153 16.43435391 273
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 159 x 149 km
1 27776U 03015B 03115.88571323 .10870819 11276+0 32448-3 0 90135
2 27776 51.6450 277.4953 0007599 248.2553 111.6638 16.44648873 285
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 154 x 145 km
1 27776U 03015B 03115.94644806 .13437485 18224+0 30002-3 0 90134
2 27776 51.6446 277.1494 0006914 248.5132 111.4131 16.46112628 296
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 149 x 141 km
1 27776U 03015B 03116.00712229 .17966641 35083+0 28334-3 0 90139
2 27776 51.6441 276.8031 0006065 248.7714 111.1638 16.47987693 303
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 141 x 134 km
1 27776U 03015B 03116.06771487 .28502315 98044+0 28346-3 0 90131
2 27776 51.6434 276.4561 0004914 249.0301 110.9173 16.50692794 317
Cosmos 2397 Proton r 125 x 121 km
1 27776U 03015B 03116.12817086 .84420357 78709+1 36273-3 0 90136
2 27776 51.6421 276.1081 0002862 249.2897 110.6796 16.56332788 328
Note: The drag term in the latest elset is probably incorrect. I
predict that this will decay near St Helena in the Atlantic towards
the end of the final predicted rev above.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27777 = 03- 15 C = Cosmos 21397 Proton casing
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
SCC Apr 25 10:05 Apr 25 04:57 +-22m 42.5 S 51.1 W
SatEvo Apr 25 18:30 Apr 25 03:46 -10m+40m 21.6 N 30.5 E
Final elsets:
Cosmos 2397 Proton casing 154 x 152 km
1 27777U 03015C 03115.03127494 .19357057 12526-4 63448-3 0 108
2 27777 51.6274 282.3192 0002164 103.9813 256.1295 16.44865088 147
Cosmos 2397 Proton casing 170 x 99 km
1 27777U 03015C 03115.15260506 .12848239 11952-4 50919-4 0 116
2 27777 51.6339 281.6634 0053975 204.5274 157.3590 16.51860308 167
Note: There is something wrong with the final elset - it shows an
impossible increase in the apogee height. I estimate that this
decayed northbound over the Red Sea almost an orbit before SCC's
estimate.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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