Decay watch: 2003 April 25

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Apr 25 2003 - 15:11:25 EDT

  • Next message: Thomas Fly: "Re: hoping to compare notes"

    SCC has posted warnings for two new decayers from the Cosmso 2397 (aka 
    "Gonglomerate") launch. The following is adapted from my updated Decay 
    Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25240 = 98- 14 B = Intelsat 806 Atlas 2AS Centaur Rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 25 11:21     Apr 27 09:49 +-1d        20.3 N    24.0 E
    SatEvo     Apr 25 18:20     Apr 27 20:07 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Intlst 806Cn r   8.3  3.0  0.0  4.0 v   23       520 x 155 km
    1 25240U 98014B   03115.39903711  .07784111 -14688-4  21483-2 0  8987
    2 25240  22.4457 337.6249 0272150 353.3399   6.3539 15.77610892137480
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27776 = 03- 15 B = Cosmos 2397 Proton rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 25 17:77     Apr 26 06:02 +-7h         0.5 N    27.7 W
    SatEvo     Apr 25 18:50     Apr 26 04:27 +-4h        14.0 S    16.0 W
    
    Latest elsets:
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             172 x 164 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03115.52049527  .05374252  12369-4  42802-3 0   120
    2 27776  51.6456 279.5611 0006329 265.4635  94.5680 16.39175123   224
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             163 x 151 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03115.70326157 -.39830893  12734-4 -14937-2 0   138
    2 27776  51.6459 278.5307 0009155 247.4834 112.5317 16.43435789   252
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             162 x 151 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03115.82492941  .09198314  77390-1  35435-3 0 90138
    2 27776  51.6454 277.8407 0008180 247.9978 111.9153 16.43435391   273
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             159 x 149 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03115.88571323  .10870819  11276+0  32448-3 0 90135
    2 27776  51.6450 277.4953 0007599 248.2553 111.6638 16.44648873   285
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             154 x 145 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03115.94644806  .13437485  18224+0  30002-3 0 90134
    2 27776  51.6446 277.1494 0006914 248.5132 111.4131 16.46112628   296
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             149 x 141 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03116.00712229  .17966641  35083+0  28334-3 0 90139
    2 27776  51.6441 276.8031 0006065 248.7714 111.1638 16.47987693   303
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             141 x 134 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03116.06771487  .28502315  98044+0  28346-3 0 90131
    2 27776  51.6434 276.4561 0004914 249.0301 110.9173 16.50692794   317
    Cosmos 2397 Proton r                             125 x 121 km
    1 27776U 03015B   03116.12817086  .84420357  78709+1  36273-3 0 90136
    2 27776  51.6421 276.1081 0002862 249.2897 110.6796 16.56332788   328
    
    Note: The drag term in the latest elset is probably incorrect. I
    predict that this will decay near St Helena in the Atlantic towards
    the end of the final predicted rev above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27777 = 03- 15 C = Cosmos 21397 Proton casing
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
    SCC        Apr 25 10:05     Apr 25 04:57 +-22m       42.5 S    51.1 W
    SatEvo     Apr 25 18:30     Apr 25 03:46 -10m+40m    21.6 N    30.5 E
    
    Final elsets:
    Cosmos 2397 Proton casing                        154 x 152 km
    1 27777U 03015C   03115.03127494  .19357057  12526-4  63448-3 0   108
    2 27777  51.6274 282.3192 0002164 103.9813 256.1295 16.44865088   147
    Cosmos 2397 Proton casing                        170 x 99 km
    1 27777U 03015C   03115.15260506  .12848239  11952-4  50919-4 0   116
    2 27777  51.6339 281.6634 0053975 204.5274 157.3590 16.51860308   167
    
    Note: There is something wrong with the final elset - it shows an
    impossible increase in the apogee height. I estimate that this
    decayed northbound over the Red Sea almost an orbit before SCC's
    estimate.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    To unsubscribe from SeeSat-L, send a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@satobs.org
    List archived at http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Apr 25 2003 - 15:18:44 EDT