Decay watch: 2003 April 24

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 24 2003 - 14:22:00 EDT

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     From my Decay Watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25240 = 98- 14 B = Intelsat 806 Atlas 1AS Centaur Rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 24 03:11     Apr 26 15:42 +-2d        19.6 N    61.3 W
    SatEvo     Apr 24 18:15     Apr 28 00:24 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elsets (take your pick!):
    Intlst 806Cn r   8.3  3.0  0.0  4.0 v   23       589 x 172 km
    1 25240U 98014B   03114.25487889  .05355756  00000-0  32468-2 0  8906
    2 25240  22.4630 346.4249 0308845 337.9005  20.7338 15.62477490137301
    Intlst 806Cn r   8.3  3.0  0.0  4.0 v   23       603 x 157 km
    1 25240U 98014B   03114.25488777  .05884007 -14403-4  20478-2 0  8904
    2 25240  22.4560 346.3536 0329465 338.5938  20.1094 15.62685102137308
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27708 = 03- 11 B = Molniya 1T Platform
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Apr 23 22:24     Apr 23 20:17 +-6h        61.7 N     2.4 E
    SatEvo     Apr 24 17:30     Apr 23 20:27 +-15m       34.4 N    86.2 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 1-92Pl   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.0 d    6       154 x 125 km
    1 27708U 03011B   03113.82949220  .14198978  90704-5  12658-3 0  1015
    2 27708  62.8439  84.9526 0022581  87.0129 278.7082 16.49881030  3442
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running only 4 sec early against
    my final prediction. SCC has it decaying N of Bergen, Norway, on
    this orbit but the uncertainty of 6 hours is unusually large unless
    the analysis predated the elset computation. I show it decaying a
    little further around the orbit, possibly southbound over SW China.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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