Gorizont 19

From: Michael Waterman (mike.waterman@web-hq.com)
Date: Tue Apr 08 2003 - 12:08:18 EDT

  • Next message: Michael Waterman: "Gorizont 19"

    89081A = #20263 = Gorizont 19
    On the 7th I saw mid-flashes at 202022 203501 210419 and 211901 UT. 
    I did not look for the 2005 flash.
    I looked for the 2134 flash but saw nothing. 
    The period was 879.7+-0.2s.
    Thanks to Rainer for his flash data.
    Rainer's times give a period of 881.7+-0.2s
    These periodS are inconsistent, but the period is estimated on the 
    assumption that it is constant.
    If we fit to Rainer's first 4 times (matching my flashes) then we
     get 879.5+-.2s which is close to my period.
    However the rate of change of period during Rainer's observations
    is about 4sec per hour which is not consistent with the change in 
    period from 1 day to the next. Possibly this is due to the shape
    of the surface of Gorizont: for example a slightly twisted surface
    would give each flash from a different part of the surface.
    The period does not seem to be increasing smoothly, which is why 
    my prediction for April 7th was 3 minutes out.
    My guess for Europe for tonight (Apr 8) is that the period will
    be 882+-1s, and the flashes will be within 2 minutes of 2008 2023 
    2038 2052 2107 2122 2136 2151.
    If we had observations from outside Europe then it should be
    possible to determine the direction of Gorizont's spin axis.
    Mike Waterman      mike.waterman@marconi.com
    Site Yateley = COSPAR 2115 =  51.3286N  0.7950W  75m.
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