Decay watch: 2002 April 29

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Apr 29 2002 - 16:09:20 EDT

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    I have updated my Decay Watch page with the final notices for Cosmos 
    1184 and the Cosmos 2388 rocket, and the first one for Kolibri. Here is 
    a summary.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11821 = 80- 44 A = Cosmos 1184
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 29 01:26     Apr 29 00:14 +-7m        79.3 N   178.4 W
    SatEvo     Apr 29 19:25     Apr 28 23:55 +-30m        3.4 S   128.3 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 1184      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   12       149 x 136 km
    1 11821U 80044A   02118.87621702  .29214579 -95678-6  39508-3 0  4112
    2 11821  81.1380 344.5506 0010116 261.0330  98.9839 16.48800255200857
    
    Note: The final elset has this running 3 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction. I show this decaying over Indonesia near the northbound
    equator crossing at the end of the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Cosmos 1184      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   12       128 x 120 km
    1 11821U 80044A   02118.93677065  .79120941  99678+1  40933-3 0 94116
    2 11821  81.1359 344.4642 0006179 260.7859  99.1442 16.55714791200860
    There was a pass across the eastern part of Western Australia from
    23:48 UTC to 23:53.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27394 = 01- 51 C = Kolibri
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 29 15:49     May  2 23:49 +-2d        42.4 S    11.2 E
    SatEvo     Apr 29 20:00     May  3 10:03 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Kolibri                                          275 x 257 km
    1 27394U 01051C   02119.53532895  .01820025  22175-2  29526-2 0   900
    2 27394  51.6252 292.6375 0013228 294.3321  65.5956 16.03094774  6409
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 30 deg S in the
    evening. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near the equator before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27410 = 02- 17 B = Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 29 09:16     Apr 29 08:51 +-7m        33.0 N   176.0 E
    SatEvo     Apr 29 19:40     Apr 29 08:53 +-60m       28.8 N   178.8 E
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r                          171 x 144 km
    1 27410U 02017B   02119.16356093  .14862103  87504-5  41815-3 0   852
    2 27410  62.8018   6.3199 0020565 120.6478 239.7476 16.43175572  4323
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 13 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction. Like SpaceCom, I have this decaying southbound
    over the North Pacific Ocean. My predicted elset for the start of the
    final rev is:
    Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r                          123 x 114 km
    1 27410U 02017B   02119.34548114 1.29981691  33489+2  47330-3 0 90856
    2 27410  62.7975   5.5535 0007070 120.6853 239.3844 16.57861846  4351
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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