Decay watch: 2002 April 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Apr 26 2002 - 15:10:10 EDT

  • Next message: Starparty: "Re: Much ado about a NOSS triangle"

    A summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch page, including the 
    final notice for Starshine 2 and the addition of the Soyuz TM-24 rocket, 
    which is already down. Check the Decay Watch page for more info, 
    including predicted elsets.
    ____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11821 = 80- 44 A = Cosmos 1184
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 26 12:23     Apr 29 04:50 +-2d        65.3 M   144.2 W
    SatEvo     Apr 26 18:30     Apr 29 02:46 +-17h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1184      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   12       215 x 207 km
    1 11821U 80044A   02116.54508499  .02193877 -93109-6  90901-3 0  3940
    2 11821  81.1453 347.7718 0005679 225.4856 134.5705 16.23163498200474
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26996 = 01- 54 B = Starshine 2
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 26 12:37     Apr 26 10:55 +-1m        43.7 N    37.9 W
    SatEvo     Apr 26 18:10     Apr 26 11:10 +-25m       32.7 N    58.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       136 x 135 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02116.38216024  .19194351  12724-4  17143-3 0  2230
    2 26996  51.6129 290.7669 0001006  83.4469 277.4496 16.51590970 20710
    
    Note: The above elset shows this running 4 sec early against my final
    pre-decay prediction. I show this decaying on a southbound pass over
    Iran on the orbit after the one above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27410 = 02- 17 B = Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 26 14:29     Apr 29 13:33 +-2d        14.0 S   132.4 E
    SatEvo     Apr 26 18:45     Apr 29 14:38 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r                          281 x 185 km
    1 27410U 02017B   02116.51710364  .02354515  83279-5  10677-2 0   668
    2 27410  62.8115  17.0965 0073016 118.3197 242.5680 16.15024490  3893
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27417 = 02- 20 B = Soyuz TM-34 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 26 16:30     Apr 26 17:50 +-53m       48.7 N   105.6 W
    SatEvo     Apr 26 18:50     Apr 26 17:40 +-40m       37.0 N   131.8 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Soyuz TM-34 r    6.7  2.7  0.0  4.5 d   40       153 x 145 km
    1 27417U 02020B   02116.60675292  .20406926  12582-4  43295-3 0   103
    2 27417  51.6123 312.1365 0006465  87.5542 272.6381 16.46427240   223
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed while northbound to the W of San
    Francisco on the orbit following this SatEvo predicted rev:
    Soyuz TM-34 r    6.7  2.7  0.0  4.5 d   40       141 x 135 km
    1 27417U 02020B   02116.66735155  .45356264  21139+1  45547-3 0 90105
    2 27417  51.6112 311.7897 0004945  87.8134 272.2433 16.50632584   236
    SpaceCom's final pre-decay prediction was for decay a few minutes
    later near the Montana-Saskatchewan border. The final SpaceCom notice
    has yet to appear.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Apr 26 2002 - 15:11:23 EDT