Decay watch: 2002 April 25

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 25 2002 - 15:16:36 EDT

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    SpaceCom has posted the first decay notices for Cosmos 1184 and the 
    Cosmos 2388 rocket. The following, which also includes my prediction for 
    Starshine 2, is taken from my updated Decay Watch page.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11821 = 80- 44 A = Cosmos 1184
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 25 04:14     Apr 29 02:56 +-2d        13.0 M    86.3 E
    SatEvo     Apr 25 18:40     Apr 28 16:57 +-1.1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1184      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   12       231 x 223 km
    1 11821U 80044A   02114.93918257  .01667885 -92396-6  10786-2 0  3884
    2 11821  81.1509 349.9612 0005867 211.3276 148.7663 16.17358701200210
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs while southbound near 44 deg N in the
    evening. It leaves eclipse northbound near 78 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26996 = 01- 54 B = Starshine 2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 24 12:48     Apr 26 13:11 +-1d        50.9 S   134.9 E
    SatEvo     Apr 25 19:00     Apr 26 10:30 +-6h        20.9 S    98.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       179 x 173 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02115.53011521  .04101779  00000-0  45907-3 0  2180
    2 26996  51.6125 295.6500 0004079 244.0539 115.9970 16.36243835 20575
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       169 x 164 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02115.83515047  .06572694  29444-1  49413-3 0 92184
    2 26996  51.6116 293.9300 0003534 245.3392 114.6240 16.39688630 20621
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       161 x 157 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02116.01783512  .08841200  57765-1  46862-3 0 92185
    2 26996  51.6108 292.8953 0003107 246.1124 113.8550 16.42457268 20655
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       145 x 142 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02116.26080743  .19041006  36657+0  28961-3 0 92181
    2 26996  51.6090 291.5111 0002215 247.1470 112.8296 16.48515551 20697
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       137 x 135 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02116.32137676  .29388610  10478+1  27082-3 0 92189
    2 26996  51.6082 291.1638 0001821 247.4066 112.5741 16.51345265 20705
    Starshine 2      0.5  0.0  0.0  9.5 d  0.5       121 x 120 km
    1 26996U 01054B   02116.38180424  .97573497  21877+2  37436-3 0 92188
    2 26996  51.6067 290.8152 0001077 247.6671 112.3214 16.57187021 20716
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running only 0.7 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction. I predict that this will decay while northbound
    over the SE Pacific near the end of the final SatEvo predicted orbit
    above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27410 = 02- 17 B = Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 25 08:40     Apr 29 06:14 +-2d        29.9 S   106.4 W
    SatEvo     Apr 25 18:30     Apr 29 05:52 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2388 Molniya-M r                          304 x 191 km
    1 27410U 02017B   02115.33878024  .01955001  82386-5  11595-2 0   603
    2 27410  62.8131  21.8081 0085446 117.8917 243.0971 16.09898285  3700
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 48 deg N in the
    evening and leaves eclipse near southern apex at 63 deg S.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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