Decay watch: 2002 April 19

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Apr 19 2002 - 16:21:52 EDT

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    The following is taken from my updated Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25987 = 99- 65 H = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r1
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 19 11:27     Apr 19 08:29 +-1h        18.4 S    20.1 W
    SatEvo     Apr 19 19:15     Apr 19 08:09 +-40m       24.1 N    62.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    Orb 30 Peg r1    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       148 x 144 km
    1 25987U 99065H   02109.26724941  .25994523  10742-4  48312-3 0  7252
    2 25987  44.9697 114.3159 0002602  28.7917  45.1710 16.47507495132327
    
    Note: I show this decaying while southbound over the western Altantic,
    to the NE of Puerto Rico, on the following SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Orb 30 Peg r1    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       125 x 124 km
    1 25987U 99065H   02109.31531062 1.73362541  50000+2  80632-3 0 97259
    2 25987  44.9674 114.0012 0001432  29.1259 330.8821 16.55666203132331
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26941 = 01- 45 F = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 19 03:05     Apr 20 02:09 +-21h       34.4 N    89.6 E
    SatEvo     Apr 19 20:05     Apr 20 00:10 +-3h        44.4 N    92.5 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             1441 x 93 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02109.67945582  .99999999  89381-5  19198-2 0  2315
    2 26941  46.8334 190.8074 0943271  82.9210  40.7133 14.37470730  6425
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             983 x 88 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02109.86105785 2.45907367  30315+1  22674-2 0 92310
    2 26941  46.8073 189.9155 0647421  83.7952 283.5368 15.10175782  6455
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             764 x 86 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02109.92614929 3.33090966  64208+1  24004-2 0 92315
    2 26941  46.7981 189.5692 0498374  84.1348 281.5223 15.47091077  6462
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             450 x 83 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02109.98925432 6.45598467  50000+2  28588-2 0 92317
    2 26941  46.7796 189.2114 0275608  84.4860 278.6510 16.02918942  6475
    
    Note: I have this decaying over Mongolia following perigee on the
    final SatEvo-predicted rev above. SpaceCom's point is one rev later,
    but further SpaceCom predictions for this are long overdue.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27411 = 02- 17 C = Cosmos 2388 casing (aka Platform)
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 18 21:28     Apr 18 19:56 +-7m        37.4 N    70.1 W
    SatEvo     Apr 19 19:00     Apr 18 20:38 +-60m       28.1 S    85.5 E
    
    Final elsets:
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               196 x 134 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.70309778  .12082651  83962-5  25713-3 0   571
    2 27411  62.8322  46.6708 0047091 127.7709 232.8722 16.40444866  2679
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               342 x -16 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.76380920  .25218833  00000-0  23859-4 0   557
    2 27411  62.7292  46.6464 0274523 332.7493  20.2890 16.41364461  2682
    
    Note: The final elset, with its subterranean perigee, is very suspect
    and appeared before the penultimate one above, which I regard as the
    final "good" elset. I am also sceptical of the 7 min uncertainty
    in SpaceCom's decay time. I have the decay occurring southbound over
    the Indian Ocean of the second of these SatEvo predicted orbits:
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               168 x 118 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.76379278  .46862747  13553+1  37790-3 0 90579
    2 27411  62.8308  46.4163 0037686 127.7827 232.5591 16.48613858  2685
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               139 x 109 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.82430184  .83725547  59003+1  33635-3 0 90571
    2 27411  62.8285  46.1604 0023247 127.7947 232.4160 16.56012436  2693
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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