MOLNIYA RB decayed ?

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Thu Apr 18 2002 - 16:37:00 EDT

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    Report time 20:00 UTC
    2002-017C (#27411) MOLNIYA RB - PLATFORM aka BOZ
    
    SPACECOM'S 12 HOURS BEFORE DECAY message - issued April 18,
    08:12 UTC - predicted the decay on
           18 April,20:29 UTC +/- 08 hours (25.0N, 59.4E)
    on a southbound pass over the Arabian Sea.
    MPM+REENTRY deliver with ELSETs 02108.336.... + 02108.459...
    (SFX 190, ap 027) the decay
           18 April, 20:28 UTC +/- 27 minutes (26.00N, 58.90E)
    also descending over the Arabian Sea near the coast line.
    
    But later we saw two ELSETs 02108.703... and  02108.763...
    with large increases of the eccentricity and a dramatic
    shift of the argument of perigee. Are they really describing  
    #27411 ? It is possible that we had a breakup of the Platform
    around 16:08 UTC und SPACECOM is tracking a fragment?
    Based on the last two ELSETs  - they are also not very
    compatible - I estimate a decay of my "fragment" on
    19:36 UTC +/- 05 minutes over the South Pacific. But let
    us wait and see....
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany                
    
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