I show all the current decays moving earlier. The following is a summary
from my updated Decay Watch page. Check there for more predicted elsets
and other details.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25987 = 99- 65 H = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 18 10:17 Apr 19 09:20 +-14h 36.4 N 174.8 E
SatEvo Apr 18 18:25 Apr 19 08:35 +-5h 42.2 S 22.2 E
Latest elset:
Orb 30 Peg r1 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.1 199 x 189 km
1 25987U 99065H 02108.58329421 .05405937 00000-0 11923-2 0 7185
2 25987 44.9736 118.7578 0007417 55.4483 304.8267 16.29349558132212
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Orb 30 Peg r1 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.1 152 x 147 km
1 25987U 99065H 02109.25493816 .32858573 98994+0 79576-3 0 97184
2 25987 44.9693 114.4555 0003634 60.0168 300.0192 16.46130421132324
Orb 30 Peg r1 1.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 1.1 136 x 133 km
1 25987U 99065H 02109.31552182 .78190157 83100+1 64250-3 0 97187
2 25987 44.9679 114.0602 0002475 60.4366 299.5880 16.51950584132336
Note: I show this decaying to the south of South Africa on the approach
to southern apex on the last of my SatEvo orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26941 = 01- 45 F = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 18 03:33 Apr 20 03:58 +-1d 28.6 N 71.0 E
SatEvo Apr 18 18:35 Apr 19 18:47 +-11h 46.7 N 144.0 E
Latest elsets:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 3109 x 167 km
1 26941U 01045F 02108.51485122 .57403664 00000-0 89228-1 0 2236
2 26941 47.1669 195.5774 1834933 72.8927 311.2508 12.09656851 6268
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 3084 x 98 km
1 26941U 01045F 02108.59683119 .65081278 25386-4 19852-2 0 2237
2 26941 46.8575 195.0746 1873035 78.0810 302.4475 12.20343898 6294
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 2756 x 312 km
1 26941U 01045F 02108.67824095 .71717569 00000-0 30680+1 0 2245
2 26941 47.1747 194.9199 1544052 73.5051 309.9819 12.33572250 6272
SatEvo prediction:
(..ends)
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 809 x 85 km
1 26941U 01045F 02109.70463474 3.73364659 76634+1 25404-2 0 92204
2 26941 46.7266 190.5084 0530448 82.5427 283.4505 15.39872109 6440
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 449 x 81 km
1 26941U 01045F 02109.76784092 7.45941206 50000+2 28396-2 0 92207
2 26941 46.7048 190.1516 0277380 82.8940 280.2516 16.03488939 6454
Note: Once again, the recent elsets are very inconsistent with regard
to the eccentricity and perigee height. My predicted elset remain
very uncertain. I have it decaying close to perigee on the final
predicted orbit, just after a pass across China, S Korea and Japan.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27411 = 02- 17 C = Cosmos 2388 casing (aka Platform)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 18 08:12 Apr 18 20:29 +-8h 25.0 N 59.4 E
SatEvo Apr 18 18:15 Apr 18 20:41 +-90m 38.2 S 92.5 E
Latest elsets:
Cosmos 2388 casing 199 x 171 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.45902302 .10033189 00000-0 15267-2 0 530
2 27411 62.8370 47.6884 0021128 83.3346 277.4117 16.32913705 2638
Cosmos 2388 casing 246 x 75 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.70309571 .18438158 00000-0 36807-4 0 546
2 27411 62.8217 46.7909 0130580 321.0108 37.9980 16.41903174 2677
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 2388 casing 165 x 124 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.76385035 .45994053 13529+1 45264-3 0 90480
2 27411 62.8393 46.3462 0030955 116.3672 243.9509 16.48098218 2686
Cosmos 2388 casing 135 x 111 km
1 27411U 02017C 02108.82437194 1.02733401 58963+1 41875-3 0 90488
2 27411 62.8373 46.0904 0018323 116.3790 243.8092 16.56306710 2693
Note: This decay has shifted earlier but the recent elsets have
either a too-high or too-low perigee, so my prediction is uncertain.
I show it decaying southbound over the Indian Ocean on the second of
these SatEvo-predicted orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Apr 18 2002 - 14:57:42 EDT