Decay watch: 2002 April 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 18 2002 - 14:52:41 EDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "MOLNIYA RB decayed ?"

    I show all the current decays moving earlier. The following is a summary 
    from my updated Decay Watch page. Check there for more predicted elsets 
    and other details.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25987 = 99- 65 H = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 18 10:17     Apr 19 09:20 +-14h       36.4 N   174.8 E
    SatEvo     Apr 18 18:25     Apr 19 08:35 +-5h        42.2 S    22.2 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Orb 30 Peg r1    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       199 x 189 km
    1 25987U 99065H   02108.58329421  .05405937  00000-0  11923-2 0  7185
    2 25987  44.9736 118.7578 0007417  55.4483 304.8267 16.29349558132212
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Orb 30 Peg r1    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       152 x 147 km
    1 25987U 99065H   02109.25493816  .32858573  98994+0  79576-3 0 97184
    2 25987  44.9693 114.4555 0003634  60.0168 300.0192 16.46130421132324
    Orb 30 Peg r1    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       136 x 133 km
    1 25987U 99065H   02109.31552182  .78190157  83100+1  64250-3 0 97187
    2 25987  44.9679 114.0602 0002475  60.4366 299.5880 16.51950584132336
    
    Note: I show this decaying to the south of South Africa on the approach
    to southern apex on the last of my SatEvo orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26941 = 01- 45 F = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 18 03:33     Apr 20 03:58 +-1d        28.6 N    71.0 E
    SatEvo     Apr 18 18:35     Apr 19 18:47 +-11h       46.7 N   144.0 E
    
    Latest elsets:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             3109 x 167 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02108.51485122  .57403664  00000-0  89228-1 0  2236
    2 26941  47.1669 195.5774 1834933  72.8927 311.2508 12.09656851  6268
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             3084 x 98 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02108.59683119  .65081278  25386-4  19852-2 0  2237
    2 26941  46.8575 195.0746 1873035  78.0810 302.4475 12.20343898  6294
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             2756 x 312 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02108.67824095  .71717569  00000-0  30680+1 0  2245
    2 26941  47.1747 194.9199 1544052  73.5051 309.9819 12.33572250  6272
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (..ends)
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             809 x 85 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02109.70463474 3.73364659  76634+1  25404-2 0 92204
    2 26941  46.7266 190.5084 0530448  82.5427 283.4505 15.39872109  6440
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             449 x 81 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02109.76784092 7.45941206  50000+2  28396-2 0 92207
    2 26941  46.7048 190.1516 0277380  82.8940 280.2516 16.03488939  6454
    
    Note: Once again, the recent elsets are very inconsistent with regard
    to the eccentricity and perigee height. My predicted elset remain
    very uncertain. I have it decaying close to perigee on the final
    predicted orbit, just after a pass across China, S Korea and Japan.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27411 = 02- 17 C = Cosmos 2388 casing (aka Platform)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 18 08:12     Apr 18 20:29 +-8h        25.0 N    59.4 E
    SatEvo     Apr 18 18:15     Apr 18 20:41 +-90m       38.2 S    92.5 E
    
    Latest elsets:
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               199 x 171 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.45902302  .10033189  00000-0  15267-2 0   530
    2 27411  62.8370  47.6884 0021128  83.3346 277.4117 16.32913705  2638
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               246 x 75 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.70309571  .18438158  00000-0  36807-4 0   546
    2 27411  62.8217  46.7909 0130580 321.0108  37.9980 16.41903174  2677
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               165 x 124 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.76385035  .45994053  13529+1  45264-3 0 90480
    2 27411  62.8393  46.3462 0030955 116.3672 243.9509 16.48098218  2686
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               135 x 111 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02108.82437194 1.02733401  58963+1  41875-3 0 90488
    2 27411  62.8373  46.0904 0018323 116.3790 243.8092 16.56306710  2693
    
    Note: This decay has shifted earlier but the recent elsets have
    either a too-high or too-low perigee, so my prediction is uncertain.
    I show it decaying southbound over the Indian Ocean on the second of
    these SatEvo-predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Apr 18 2002 - 14:57:42 EDT