Decay watch: 2002 April 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Apr 15 2002 - 16:22:15 EDT

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    In the past few hours, SpaceCom has posted its initial decay warnings 
    for three objects, including one of the Raduga 1-6 aux motors that I had 
    overlooked in my recent SatEvo decay list. Check my decay Watch page for 
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25987 = 99- 65 H = Orbcomm 30 Pegasus r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 15 18:31     Apr 19 18:31 +-3d        20.9 N   144.1 E
    SatEvo     Apr 15 19:40     Apr 19 20:10 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Orb 30 Peg r1    1.3  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.1       271 x 225 km
    1 25987U 99065H   02105.18630172  .01546863  16681-2  15015-2 0  7018
    2 25987  44.9756 139.8920 0035232  39.7834 320.5654 16.09655876131664
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 6 deg S in the evening
    and leaves eclipse southbound near 36 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26941 = 01- 45 F = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 15 15:49     Apr 19 16:01 +-2d        35.5 N   118.7 W
    SatEvo     Apr 15 19:55     Apr 19 21:33 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 1-6 aux motor                             6197 x 102 km
    1 26941U 01045F   02105.58777445  .32421173  15276-4  19853-2 0  2075
    2 26941  46.8737 202.9884 3198159  70.1965 321.3529  9.33594332  5973
    
    Note: This is not far from its very low perigee when it leaves
    eclipse near 45 deg N before dawn. It is much higher (3,000+ km)
    when it enters eclipse while northbound near 32 deg S in the
    evening. The prediction is very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27411 = 02- 17 C = Cosmos 2388 casing (aka Platform)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 15 17:45     Apr 19 12:46 +-2d        13.3 N   178.3 E
    SatEvo     Apr 15 20:10     Apr 19 15:26 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2388 casing                               344 x 176 km
    1 27411U 02017C   02105.67356808  .02365734  81084-5  10965-2 0   356
    2 27411  62.8513  58.7868 0126606 116.2376 245.1802 16.05140098  2188
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs just after northern apex at 62 deg N at
    about 21:00 local time, with eclipse exit southbound near 53 deg S
    at 05:00 local time.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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