RE: Estimated STS 110 Lift-off and elements

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Mon Apr 01 2002 - 21:52:04 EST

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    I have revised my estimated post OMS-2 elements:
    
    1 99999U          02094.95310089  .00025948  12201-4  18433-4 0    10
    2 99999  51.6368  61.4230 0011454 285.1487 252.4856 16.17009401    03
    
    This revision results from improvements in my ISS lift-off time
    algorithm, which now indicates a later launch than my previous estimate:
    
        Launch     Coplanar    Lift-off
         Date        UTC         UTC
    -----------------------------------
     2002 Apr 04   22:16:04    22:12:52
     2002 Apr 05   21:52:24    21:50:22
     2002 Apr 06   21:28:44    21:24:33
     2002 Apr 07   21:05:04    21:02:03
     2002 Apr 08   20:41:24    20:36:14
     2002 Apr 09   20:17:43    20:13:44
     2002 Apr 10   19:54:02    19:51:14
     2002 Apr 11   19:30:21    19:25:25
     2002 Apr 12   19:06:40    19:02:55
     2002 Apr 13   18:42:58    18:40:25
    
    The new algorithm is based on my finding that the difference between the
    coplanar time and the preferred lift-off time for a flight-day 3
    rendezvous correlates strongly linearly with the target spacecraft's
    contemporaneous argument of latitude.
    
    The new algorithm predicts 12 of the last 15 Mir and ISS lift-offs to
    within a couple of seconds. One prediction is accurate to within 10 s.
    The remaining 2 launches are predicted to within 1 or 2 minutes.
    
    I intend to further study the launches that do not fit the algorithm, in
    an effort to derive a more general and reliable solution. I will hold
    off on issuing revised software until then. I am unusually busy with
    work, so I cannot predict when that will be.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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