Decay watch: 2002 April 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Apr 01 2002 - 14:21:41 EST

  • Next message: jcm@head-cfa.harvard.edu: "Re: Shenzhou module?"

    My Decay Watch page now has notices for three current decayers:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22780 = 93- 54 B = GPS 2-22 Delta 2 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 31 21:49     Apr  4 14:26 +-2d        16.2 S   106.2 W
    SatEvo     Apr  1 19:10     Apr  4 14:55 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-22 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       247 x 226 km
    1 22780U 93054B   02091.67439797  .02119677  43446-2  17028-2 0  5435
    2 22780  22.0164 100.3657 0015320 110.2655 249.9352 16.13830131473622
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 8 deg N in the evening
    and leaves eclipse southbound near 4 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23767 = 96-  2 D = Panamsat 3R Spelda
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr  1 10:00     Apr  4 06:37 +-2d         6.7 S    55.0 W
    SatEvo     Apr  1 18:50     Apr  4 10:22 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Panamsat 3R Spelda                               1088 x 149 km
    1 23767U 96002D   02091.42964376  .11340684 -25406-4  38208-2 0  7355
    2 23767   6.9754 333.1427 0670914   9.7722 351.2412 14.83438413 89830
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs near 3 deg N in the evening and eclipse exit
    near 7 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27398 = 02- 14 B = Shenzhou 3 CZ-2F rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 31 22:56     Apr  2 19:34 +-1d        39.6 N    33.0 W
    SatEvo     Apr  1 19:00     Apr  2 17:47 +-8h        28.3 N    86.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       229 x 167 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02091.45248668  .04177137  84500-5  75731-3 0   293
    2 27398  42.3869 344.4227 0047153 187.1128 173.0205 16.27834007  1116
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       216 x 161 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02091.82014568  .05630923  16469-1  73806-3 0 90297
    2 27398  42.3860 341.9851 0041627 189.9637 169.9535 16.31510507  1174
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       208 x 157 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02092.00365717  .06760365  25609-1  71829-3 0 90297
    2 27398  42.3854 340.7633 0038213 191.3928 168.5202 16.33769751  1208
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       189 x 149 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02092.30885082  .10647230  71558-1  53782-3 0 90294
    2 27398  42.3842 338.7210 0030847 193.7816 166.1340 16.38879012  1259
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       164 x 136 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02092.55212549  .21151439  25226+0  34611-3 0 90295
    2 27398  42.3825 337.0792 0021128 195.7020 164.2321 16.46066028  1294
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       154 x 131 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02092.61274589  .26584139  59423+0  28900-3 0 90296
    2 27398  42.3816 336.6669 0017622 196.1843 163.7594 16.48918487  1309
    Shenzhou 3 r    10.0  3.0  0.0  4.0 d   20       140 x 123 km
    1 27398U 02014B   02092.67324380  .44734188  21073+1  27856-3 0 90298
    2 27398  42.3806 336.2536 0012863 196.6678 163.2898 16.53021899  1311
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 6 sec early against
    yesterday's prediction. My prediction has it decaying over the
    Gulf of Mexico just before it crosses northern Florida. The
    uncertainty of several hours, though, takes in several orbits
    including a number over the USA and southern Europe.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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