Decay watch: 2001 Apr 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Apr 28 2001 - 12:02:20 PDT

  • Next message: Jonathan T Wojack: "Re: Morning Pass Of ISS/Venus"

    the last word on the decaying Atlas SGS stage, and the first decay
    warning for the rocket from today's Soyuz launch...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #10960 = 77- 53 B = NTS 2 Atlas F r (SGS-1 stage)
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 28 16:50     Apr 28 13:35 +-51m       32.8 N    39.0 W
    SatEvo     Apr 28 18:30     Apr 28 13:28 +-45m       20.8 N    46.4 W
    
    Final elset:
    NTS 2 Altas r                                    486 x 107 km
    1 10960U 77053B   01118.39278963  .71796081  12041-4  10606-2 0  6663
    2 10960  62.8042   1.7111 0283353  36.5390  86.9022 15.92081776385954
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 33 sec late against yesterday's 
    prediction. I suspect it survived the pass from NW France to Sweden
    at about 12:12 UTC, with decay most likely on the approach to the
    following perigee. This would have put it over the Altantic, to the N
    of Brazil. My predicted elset for the last complete rev is:
    NTS 2 Altas r                                    325 x 105 km
    1 10960U 77053B   01118.49607658 1.82772267  62085+1  18078-2 0 96641
    2 10960  62.7852   1.2771 0166540  36.5691 324.5566 16.21814869385977
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26750 = 01- 17 B = Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Apr 28 17:32     Apr 29 17:41 +-15h       48.5 N    32.3 W
    SatEvo     Apr 28 18:45     Apr 29 18:01 +-7h        20.5 S    41.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            211 x 180 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01118.67825269  .05132451  12119-4  11069-2 0    51
    2 26750  51.6168 338.5939 0023320  87.9372 272.4331 16.28952153    65
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            207 x 177 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01118.80087622  .05520103  14581-1  10528-2 0 90054
    2 26750  51.6164 337.9107 0022356  88.4476 271.8085 16.30249880    80
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            197 x 171 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01119.04584083  .06901123  24249-1  98242-3 0 90052
    2 26750  51.6156 336.5417 0020157  89.4703 270.7607 16.33263416   128
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            185 x 162 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01119.29029165  .09285922  43802-1  87468-3 0 90053
    2 26750  51.6144 335.1689 0017416  90.4960 269.7036 16.37168513   166
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            167 x 149 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01119.53404355  .15780678  17363+0  58009-3 0 90053
    2 26750  51.6128 333.7908 0013569  91.5257 268.6298 16.42916402   209
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            160 x 144 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01119.59482630  .20080389  31470+0  48852-3 0 90059
    2 26750  51.6123 333.4451 0012167  91.7840 268.3554 16.45068870   210
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            151 x 138 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01119.65551644  .29092109  73004+0  42597-3 0 90059
    2 26750  51.6115 333.0987 0010309  92.0429 268.0752 16.47973599   227
    Soyuz TM-32 Soyuz-U r                            137 x 127 km
    1 26750U 01017B   01119.71606824  .61103651  37456+1  41870-3 0 90053
    2 26750  51.6104 332.7513 0007310  92.3025 267.7812 16.52883260   234
    
    Note: This, of course, is in the same orbital plane as the ISS and 
    STS-100, so if these are visible in your evening or morning twilight 
    sky, then so might be this rocket. It is lower, of course, so
    eclipse entry/exit occurs earlier than it would for ISS/STS-100.
    I show this decaying southbound about half way round the final
    predicted orbit, above. This puts it southbound off SE Africa,
    between Mozambique and Madagascar.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Apr 28 2001 - 12:04:23 PDT