Decay watch: 2001 Apr 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Apr 18 2001 - 12:38:32 PDT

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    See my Decay Watch page for the full story...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #5143 = 71- 31 B = Meteor 1-8 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 18 10:33     Apr 18 11:46 +-2h        17.5 S   130.2 W
    SatEvo     Apr 18 19:15     Apr 18 11:46 +-25m        0.0     128.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    Meteor 1-8 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  9.0       133 x 121 km
    1 05143U 71031B   01108.44032855  .29143587 -95076-6  16630-3 0  5422
    2 05143  81.2050 254.8481 0009656 254.6453 165.1562 16.54772126646483
    
    Note: The final elset shows it running only 18 sec early against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I place the decay near the northbound 
    equator crossing over the eastern Pacific at the end of the above 
    orbit. If it remained aloft, it would have passed northwards across 
    the NW USA from northern California at 11:56 to Seattle, Washington,
    at 11:58. SpaceCom's final notice has yet to appear.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15957 = 85- 70 E = Raduga 16 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr 18 13:31     Apr 18 11:17 +-5h        42.4 S   163.9 E
    SatEvo     Apr 18 19:30     Apr 18 14:23 +-3h        36.7 S   168.9 W
    
    Final elset:
    Raduga 16 aux motor                              358 x 111 km
    1 15957U 85070E   01108.11795219  .20918190  00000-0  27214-3 0  3298
    2 15957  46.5654 301.2399 0186656 276.9169  81.1122 16.14633974186608
    
    Note: The final elset shows it running 29 sec early against yesterday's 
    prediction. SpaceCom appears to have lost it several hours before the 
    decay. I show this decaying northbound over the southern Pacific on the 
    last of these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
    Raduga 16 aux motor                              264 x 107 km
    1 15957U 85070E   01108.42588145  .40497049  40764+0  34848-3 0 93297
    2 15957  46.5607 299.3579 0119418 278.7832  79.8663 16.32584661186659
    Raduga 16 aux motor                              236 x 106 km
    1 15957U 85070E   01108.48700863  .50961016  74742+0  36774-3 0 93290
    2 15957  46.5594 298.9775 0099617 279.1605  79.7139 16.38108765186669
    Raduga 16 aux motor                              199 x 103 km
    1 15957U 85070E   01108.54791100  .75026686  25842+1  40676-3 0 93297
    2 15957  46.5569 298.5952 0073675 279.5398  79.6282 16.45532560186674
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Apr 18 2001 - 12:41:24 PDT