Iridium 38 early flare

From: Tristan Cools (t.cools@yucom.be)
Date: Wed Apr 11 2001 - 13:34:36 PDT

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    Hello,
    
    I just saw a mag -4 flare from Iridium 38(97-69E).
    
    Predicted flare(with iridflar) was at 19:53:24 UTC from my location at
    Bruges on April 11.
    
    However the predicted maximum was some 10 to 15s early.  
    
    Does somebody have an explanation for this ?  I used to predict Iridium
    flares with a much higher accuracy(~1s).
    
    Greetings,
    
    
    Tristan Cools t.cools@yucom.be
    Belgian Working Group Satellites(BWGS)
    
    Ryckevelde:  3.2856E/51.2045N - OBS place 2
    Brugge:      3.2166E/51.2104N - OBS place 3(home)
    
    Primary site  http://gallery.uunet.be/tcools/satimage/index.htm
    Mirror site   http://www.satimage.bwgs.yucom.be/index.htm
    
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