decay watch: 2000 Apr 27

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 27 2000 - 00:36:43 PDT

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    #23834 = 96- 19 B = GPS 2-25 Delta 2 rocket
    
    My current decay estimate is for Apr 27 13:34 +-4h near 28.3 S, 74.5 E.
    This still shows it decaying while northbound over the Indian Ocean as
    it nears the end of the final predicted orbit:
    GPS 2-25 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       138 x 136 km
    1 23834U 96019B   00118.51420412  .55013183  31939+1  54826-3 0 98654
    2 23834  35.0261 183.8942 0001832  87.0776 272.9433 16.50890849228836
    
    SpaceCom's latest estimate places decay a little further along at Apr 27
    13:55 +-9h near 8.6 N, 132.3 E. This point lies to the SE of the
    Philippines after it passes over Indonesia. The rocket makes a pass
    across the USA from the N of Los Angeles at 12:45 UTC to the S of
    Houston at 12:50.
    
    
    #26302 = 00- 21 B = Progress M1-2 Soyuz rocket
    
    Against the prediction I posted yesterday, this was running 12 seconds
    early at the epoch of the latest elset:
    PrgM1-2 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       166 x 151 km
    1 26302U 00021B   00118.24000507  .23543791  12480-4  92579-3 0   173
    2 26302  51.6301 158.2405 0011760  89.3627 270.8749 16.42877537   238
    
    My current estimate is for the decay to occur at Apr 27 10:51 +-90m over
    the equator at 41.5 W. This is very close to SpaceCom's estimate of Apr
    27 10:55 +-4h at 0.3 S, 41.2 W, being near a southbound equator crossing
    off the NE coast of Brazil. A little earlier it crosses eastwards over N
    America, passing N of Vancouver at 10:30 UTC, N of Minneapolis at 10:35,
    over Detroit at 10:37 and Washington DC at 10:39. My prediction for the
    final rev:
    PrgM1-2 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       131 x 124 km
    1 26302U 00021B   00118.42197323  .75665394  54183+1  42145-3 0 90172
    2 26302  51.6270 157.2012 0005552  90.1384 269.9252 16.54392913   262
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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