Decay watch: 2000 Apr 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 - 11:46:04 PDT

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    For some reason, OIG is displaying a SpaceCom a decay notice for
    Explorer 7 (#22 = 59-  9 A), predicting its decay for 2088 Feb 27 01:22
    UTC +-2min. The latest elset for this is:
    Explorer 7       0.8  0.8  0.0  8.8 d 0.85       828 x 518 km
    1 00022U 59009A   00117.09478087  .00004047  00000-0  53767-3 0  4439
    2 00022  50.3016 203.8141 0219626 347.3548  12.1933 14.66363024132550
    Surely some mistake :)
    
    More details to be found on...
                    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ 
    concerning the actual current decayers...
    
    
    #23834 = 96- 19 B = GPS 2-25 Delta 2 rocket
    
    SpaceCom's latest estimate is for decay at Apr 27 12:33 +-15h at 20.3 N,
    172.7 E, while I get Apr 27 13:36 +-6h near 25.0 S, 82.2 E. My estimate
    places it northbound over the Indian Ocean as it nears the end of the
    final predicted orbit:
    GPS 2-25 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   12       139 x 136 km
    1 23834U 96019B   00118.51423213  .53556779  25539+1  55178-3 0 98635
    2 23834  35.0295 183.9009 0002038  88.9389 271.0843 16.50693694228831
    SpaceCom's  places decay near the beginning of the same orbit, over the
    Pacific Ocean. Between the two predictions, the rocket makes a pass
    across the USA from the N of Los Angeles at 12:45 UTC to the S of
    Houston at 12:50.
    
    
    #26302 = 00- 21 B = Progress M1-2 Soyuz rocket
    
    SpaceCom gives Apr 27 12:47 +-14h at 50.7 S, 35.5 E, while my prediction
    is for decay at Apr 27 13:02 +-6h near a northbound equator crossing at
    105.1 E. This is close to Singapore, Malaysia, at the end of the final
    predicted orbit:
    PrgM1-2 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       140 x 129 km
    1 26302U 00021B   00118.48302046  .46587496  18679+1  36107-3 0 90128
    2 26302  51.6276 156.8634 0008300  90.2518 269.8433 16.52003543   274
    Earlier that orbit, there is a pass across the USA from Seattle at 12:01
    UTC to New Orleans at 12:09.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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