Decay watch: 2000 Apr 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Apr 20 2000 - 01:13:46 PDT

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    #15983 = 85- 74 D = Molniya 1-64 r2
    
    Against the prediction I posted yesterday, the final elset...
    Moln 1-64 SL-6 r2                                483 x 96 km
    1 15983U 85074D   00110.98690619  .99999999  74262-5  15433-2 0  3103
    2 15983  62.2289 121.2819 0290353 259.7375 203.7618 15.94720660113698
    ...has this running 62 seconds early. My prediction for the final 
    northbound equator crossing is:
    Moln 1-64 SL-6 r2                                310 x 79 km
    1 15983U 85074D   00111.03072044 4.45108769  43621+2  13078-2 0 93077
    2 15983  62.2185 121.1454 0175611 262.5765  95.4247 16.29237117113706
    Decay was most likely over the SE Indian Ocean on the approach towards
    perigee on this rev. My analysis gives Apr 20 01:42 UTC -5m+15m at 47.1
    S, 101.3 E. SpaceCom puts is slightly earlier at Apr 20 01:38 +-7m near
    34.9 S, 89.5 E.
    
    #20704 = 90- 54 E = Gorizont 20 aux motor
    
    SpaceCom has released its first warning for this, predicting the decay
    for Apr 23 10:24 +-2d at 28.5 N. 70.6 W. I show a much later decay at
    Apr 25 05:17 +-1.3d. This enters eclipse while southbound near 31 deg S
    at ~19:00 local time. Eclipse exit occurs northbound and close to the
    equator at ~05:00 local time. The latest elset is:
    Gorznt 20 aux motor                              1144 x 115 km
    1 20704U 90054E   00110.96227848  .07568558  77444-5  26162-3 0  1873
    2 20704  46.5531 283.8978 0733748 306.2771  47.2299 14.79998543113087
    
    
    More details on my Decay Watch page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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