Decay watch: 2000 Apr 19

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Apr 19 2000 - 12:40:06 PDT

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    #15983 = 85- 74 D = Molniya 1-64 r2
    
    The latest elset has this 1.4 minute late on my prediction of yesterday.
    I still show this decaying as it tracks eastwards over the SW corner of
    the Pacific, to the S and SE of New Zealand, at Apr 20 01:58 +-8h near
    55.7 S, 167.3 W. SpaceCom's latest estimate puts the decay only a little
    earlier in the same rev at Apr 20 01:37 +-7h and 21.3 S, 80.7 E.
    
    The latest elset is:
    Moln 1-64 SL-6 r2                                1182 x 85 km
    1 15983U 85074D   00110.53618317  .74223914  49854-5  66403-3 0  3056
    2 15983  62.2280 122.9152 0782399 261.8896 238.5032 14.78809513113620
    
    My predicted elset for the final northbound equator crossing:
    Moln 1-64 SL-6 r2                                407 x 77 km
    1 15983U 85074D   00111.03184755 2.88371440  95080+1  91884-3 0 93058
    2 15983  62.1779 121.1023 0248754 262.0593  95.1105 16.11745583113701
                __________________________________________
    
    #26244 = 00- 19 B = SESat Proton r
    
    Against yesterday's prediction, this was running 20 seconds early at the
    equator crossing time implied by the latest, and possibly final, elset:
    SESat Proton r                                   140 x 134 km
    1 26244U 00019B   00110.60205439  .17366078  12708-4  16759-3 0   193
    2 26244  51.6388 162.6769 0004646 272.4819 214.0486 16.50907590   288
    
    I show this decaying to the S of port Elizabeth, South Africa, at Apr 19
    16:38 +-30m (37.7 S, 27.2 E). The track would carry it over Madagascar
    and onwards to central India (Nagpur) at 16:57 UTC. SpaceCom's final
    notice, just posted, has the decay just a little later at Apr 19 16:46
    +-37m near 24.1 S, 42.8 E.
    
    My predicted elset for the final rev:
    SESat Proton r                                   130 x 126 km
    1 26244U 00019B   00110.64125050  .43968281  17345+1  24776-3 0 90195
    2 26244  51.6375 162.4513 0003528 272.6502  87.3094 16.54400612   292
    
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Apr 19 2000 - 12:43:53 PDT