Decay watch: 2000 Apr 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Apr 18 2000 - 13:18:29 PDT

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    I have just updated my Decay Watch page at
             http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    with more detailed predictions for the following two decayers.
    
    #15983 = 85- 74 D = Molniya 1-64 r2
    
    I show this decaying at Apr 20 01:52 UTC +-8h near 57.1 S, 169.9 W, as
    it tracks eastwards over the SW corner of the Pacific, to the S and SE
    of New Zealand. The uncertainty is still several orbits. SpaceCom
    estimates the decay for one orbit later at Apr 20 03:43 +-1d near 58.6
    S, 157.6 E.
    
    The latest elset is...
    Moln 1-64 SL-6 r2                                1991 x 85 km
    1 15983U 85074D   00109.51517308  .48922404  16742-4  61486-3 0  2921
    2 15983  62.2304 126.0667 1284810 261.2059  84.2771 13.59339591113486
    ...and my prediction for the final rev reads:
    Moln 1-64 SL-6 r2                                321 x 77 km
    1 15983U 85074D   00111.02879501 3.96153055  24563+2  10197-2 0 92928
    2 15983  62.1266 121.1004 0185566 261.6772  96.2147 16.27786315113709
                  ______________________________
    
    #26244 = 00- 19 B = SESat Proton r
    
    This is a morning object as it emerges from eclipse near 52 deg N at
    about 03:00 local time. Eclipse entry occurs as it tracks northwards
    near 40 deg s at ~18:00 local time. I predict the decay for Apr 19 18:10
    +-5h near 25.0 S, 19.7 E which has it a northbound pass over Namibia as
    it heads towards an equator crossing near Nairobi, Kenya, near the end
    of the final predicted orbit above. SpaceCom puts the decay one rev
    later at Apr 19 19:49 +-15h at 0.9 N, 17.5 E.
    
    The latest elset:
    SESat Proton r                                   181 x 174 km
    1 26244U 00019B   00109.72828062  .03684803  12294-4  43880-3 0   107
    2 26244  51.6440 167.6195 0005781 295.9895  64.0608 16.35674872   141
    My prediction for the final rev (many other predicted elsets on my Decay
    Watch page):
    SESat Proton r                                   128 x 126 km
    1 26244U 00019B   00110.70204566  .41545080  17122+1  22276-3 0 90105
    2 26244  51.6387 162.1009 0001849 300.1047  59.8769 16.54797420   308
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Apr 18 2000 - 13:20:20 PDT