SatEvo decay list #97

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Apr 15 2000 - 12:43:04 PDT

  • Next message: glwells@Americanisp.net: "Re: STS 101 Launch Viewing"

    SatEvo decay list #97  (issued 2000 April 15)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 May 31, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date. The atmospheric drag rates
    experienced by satellites were very high during the geomagnetic storm 
    and auroral display on April 6-7. The drag has decreased since then, but 
    decay predictions remain uncertain.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     22457   92- 93 EW  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb             March 31.7
     25709   89-100 BE  Cosmos 2053 Tsyklon deb           April  1.5
     24150   94- 29 GZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  2.9
     24314   96- 55 B   Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r           April  4   Note 2
     26117   00- 18 B   Soyuz TM-30 Soyuz r               April  5.32
      5714   68- 91 CB  Cosmos 249 deb                    April  6.0
     20966   90-104 A   Cosmos 2106                       April  7.38
     24062   94- 29 DK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  7.8
     24342   94- 29 NT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April  9.0
     20968   90- 81 CA  FY-1B CZ deb                      April 10.1
     23417   94- 77 H   Cosmos 2297 deb                   April 10.6
     24540   94- 29 WQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 11.2
     25223   87- 68 BA  Meteor 2-16 Tsyklon deb           April 11.4
     24879   96- 51 K   Cosmos 2333 Zenit deb             April 11   Note 1
     16084   79- 17 AM  Solwind deb                       April 12.8
     25137   98-  2 D   Skynet 4D Delta deb               April 13.5 Note 1
     24686   94- 29 AAU STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 17
     13577   78- 26 FQ  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb    April 19
     22482   92- 93 FX  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    April 19
     25906   93- 59 J   Cosmos 2263 Proton deb   April 19
      4601   70- 25 D   Thorad Agena D deb       April 20
     15983   85- 74 D   Molniya 1-64 r2          April 20
     19435   86- 19 UY  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      April 20
     17201   86- 19 BD  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      April 22
      5021   70- 89 X   Cosmos 374 deb           April 22
     24579   94- 29 YF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 23
     22412   92- 93 DD  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    April 24
     20338   89- 94 A   Molniya 3-36             April 26?
     20704   90- 54 E   Gorizont 20 aux motor    April 27
     24153   94- 29 HC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 27
     23834   96- 19 B   GPS 2-25 Delta 2 r1      April 28
     24033   94- 29 CE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 28
     24113   94- 29 FL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 28
     25056   64- 26 J   Transit 9 deb            April 28 Note 2
     24187   94- 29 JN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 30
     24982   94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 30
     22033   92- 41 D   Insat 2A Spelda            May  2
     22507   92- 93 GS  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb      May  3
     17769   78- 26 HB  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb      May  4
     23996   94- 29 AR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  4
      4029   61- 15 JR  Transit 4A deb             May  9
       603   63- 22 B   Scout X-3 r                May 14
     25033   89- 85 D   USA 47 deb                 May 14
      3962   68- 91 BW  Cosmos 249 deb             May 15
     26085   00-  8 E   Globalstar A Delta r       May 15
      4985   70- 25 HF  Thorad Agena D deb         May 18
     26114   00- 17 B   IMAGE Delta 2 r1           May 18
     22726   93- 48 D   Insat 2B Spelda            May 17
     25235   98- 12 C   SNOE Pegasus r             May 20
     10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r               May 21
     13576   78- 26 FP  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb      May 21
     22470   92- 93 FK  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb      May 21
     12180   78- 26 V   Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb      May 22
     24694   94- 29 ABC STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 22
     22580   93- 16 H   Cosmos 2237 Zenit deb      May 23
     24234   94- 29 LH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 26
     24998   94- 29 ADF STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 27
     24262   94- 29 MM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 28
     14555   81- 53 JN  Cosmos 1275 deb            May 29
     24211   96- 44 D   Italsat 2 Spelda           May 31
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               June  2
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145               June  4
     23782   96-  7 B   NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r   June  5
     24771   97- 16 D   Thaicom 3 Spelda          June  6
     23858   96- 27 B   SAX Centaur r             June  7
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r            June 10?
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r             June 12
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077               June 13
     16934   86- 68 A   Molniya 1-68              June 13?
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor     June 27
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2           July
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2       July
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)       July
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird                July
     25739   99- 26 E   Terriers adapter cone     July
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor     August
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                  August
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79           September
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot    October
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2    October
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85             October
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Apr 15 2000 - 12:54:39 PDT