SatEvo decay list #97 (issued 2000 April 15) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 May 31, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. The atmospheric drag rates experienced by satellites were very high during the geomagnetic storm and auroral display on April 6-7. The drag has decreased since then, but decay predictions remain uncertain. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ----- Decay (2000) ----- Predicted Actual? 22457 92- 93 EW Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb March 31.7 25709 89-100 BE Cosmos 2053 Tsyklon deb April 1.5 24150 94- 29 GZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 2.9 24314 96- 55 B Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r April 4 Note 2 26117 00- 18 B Soyuz TM-30 Soyuz r April 5.32 5714 68- 91 CB Cosmos 249 deb April 6.0 20966 90-104 A Cosmos 2106 April 7.38 24062 94- 29 DK STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 7.8 24342 94- 29 NT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 9.0 20968 90- 81 CA FY-1B CZ deb April 10.1 23417 94- 77 H Cosmos 2297 deb April 10.6 24540 94- 29 WQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11.2 25223 87- 68 BA Meteor 2-16 Tsyklon deb April 11.4 24879 96- 51 K Cosmos 2333 Zenit deb April 11 Note 1 16084 79- 17 AM Solwind deb April 12.8 25137 98- 2 D Skynet 4D Delta deb April 13.5 Note 1 24686 94- 29 AAU STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 17 13577 78- 26 FQ Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb April 19 22482 92- 93 FX Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb April 19 25906 93- 59 J Cosmos 2263 Proton deb April 19 4601 70- 25 D Thorad Agena D deb April 20 15983 85- 74 D Molniya 1-64 r2 April 20 19435 86- 19 UY Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb April 20 17201 86- 19 BD Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb April 22 5021 70- 89 X Cosmos 374 deb April 22 24579 94- 29 YF STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 23 22412 92- 93 DD Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb April 24 20338 89- 94 A Molniya 3-36 April 26? 20704 90- 54 E Gorizont 20 aux motor April 27 24153 94- 29 HC STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 27 23834 96- 19 B GPS 2-25 Delta 2 r1 April 28 24033 94- 29 CE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 28 24113 94- 29 FL STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 28 25056 64- 26 J Transit 9 deb April 28 Note 2 24187 94- 29 JN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 30 24982 94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 30 22033 92- 41 D Insat 2A Spelda May 2 22507 92- 93 GS Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb May 3 17769 78- 26 HB Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb May 4 23996 94- 29 AR STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 4 4029 61- 15 JR Transit 4A deb May 9 603 63- 22 B Scout X-3 r May 14 25033 89- 85 D USA 47 deb May 14 3962 68- 91 BW Cosmos 249 deb May 15 26085 00- 8 E Globalstar A Delta r May 15 4985 70- 25 HF Thorad Agena D deb May 18 26114 00- 17 B IMAGE Delta 2 r1 May 18 22726 93- 48 D Insat 2B Spelda May 17 25235 98- 12 C SNOE Pegasus r May 20 10135 77- 61 B Cosmos 925 r May 21 13576 78- 26 FP Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb May 21 22470 92- 93 FK Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb May 21 12180 78- 26 V Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb May 22 24694 94- 29 ABC STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 22 22580 93- 16 H Cosmos 2237 Zenit deb May 23 24234 94- 29 LH STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 26 24998 94- 29 ADF STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 27 24262 94- 29 MM STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 28 14555 81- 53 JN Cosmos 1275 deb May 29 24211 96- 44 D Italsat 2 Spelda May 31 10860 78- 45 A Cosmos 1005 June 2 11629 79- 99 A Cosmos 1145 June 4 23782 96- 7 B NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r June 5 24771 97- 16 D Thaicom 3 Spelda June 6 23858 96- 27 B SAX Centaur r June 7 20339 89- 94 B Molniya 3-36 r June 10? 23502 95- 8 B Cosmos 2306 r June 12 11268 79- 12 A Cosmos 1077 June 13 16934 86- 68 A Molniya 1-68 June 13? 20698 90- 61 F Cosmos 2085 aux motor June 27 13967 83- 25 D Molniya 1-57 r2 July 24321 96- 56 C GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2 July 24878 97- 35 C GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D) July 25123 97- 85 A Early Bird July 25739 99- 26 E Terriers adapter cone July 21025 90-112 F Raduga 26 aux motor August 23941 96- 37 B TOMS r August 25470 98- 51 D Iridium 79 September 20399 89-101 E Cosmos 2054 aux mot October 20255 89- 78 A Molniya 1-76 October 25032 97- 67 C GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2 October 25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 October Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. No recent elsets. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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