USA 129 elements, and manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Tue Apr 11 2000 - 10:15:04 PDT

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    Pierre Neirinck produced these elements, using observations by himself, David
    Brierley, Jim Nix, Alberto Rango and Peter Wakelin, from 06 - 10 April UTC:
    
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 24680U 96072A   00102.14027890  .00049668  00000-0  71276-3 0  4307
    2 24680  97.8864 166.1188 0470283 197.2215 160.8867 14.83675003    09
    
    1 24680U 96072A   00101.39835550  .00054616  00000-0  78024-3 0  4298
    2 24680  97.8953 165.3984 0470995 199.5547 158.3363 14.83616217    01
    
    1 24680U 96072A   00101.19600850  .00050154  00000-0  70126-3 0  4286
    2 24680  97.8977 165.1995 0473197 199.7792 158.0821 14.83582259    02
    
    1 24680U 96072A   00101.12856070  .00050187  00000-0  70882-3 0  4270
    2 24680  97.8988 165.1340 0472276 200.1687 157.6609 14.83575407    01
    
    The USA 129 manoeuvre alert continues. Based on its past behaviour, an
    orbit-raising manoeuvre can be expected before its mean motion reaches 14.84
    rev/d, sometime before day 105.4 (14 April), at the present rate of decay.
    
    My records show only one case of previous operational satellites in this series
    for which the mean motion was permitted to go higher than 14.84 rev/d. In 1995,
    on day 233, both 88099A and 92083A reached mean motions in excess of 14.846
    rev/d, and then manoeuvred a day or two later. If USA 129's mean motion is
    permitted to go as high this time, then the manoeuvre could be as late as day
    111.5 (20 April), at the present rate of decay.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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