USA 86 and USA 129 elements, and USA 129 manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Sun Apr 09 2000 - 13:24:36 PDT

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    Pierre Neirinck produced these elements, using observations by himself, David
    Brierley, Russell Eberst, Jim Nix, Alberto Rango and Peter Wakelin, from 01 -
    09 April UTC:
    
    USA 86          15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 22251U 92083A   00098.11348580  .00008514  00000-0  52581-3 0  5887
    2 22251  97.7422 133.5574 0372889 189.4000 169.6477 14.66693183    09
    
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 24680U 96072A   00100.38657430  .00056578  00000-0  78548-3 0  4251
    2 24680  97.8851 164.3707 0474131 202.1902 155.4479 14.83527136    09
    
    Pierre reports that there were 10 valid points for a single pass on 7 April.
    
    The USA 129 manoeuvre alert continues. Based on its past behaviour, an
    orbit-raising manoeuvre can be expected  before its mean motion reaches 14.84
    rev/d, sometime before day 104.6 (13 April), at the present rate of decay.
    
    My records show only one case of previous operational satellites in this series
    for which the mean motion was permitted to go higher than 14.84 rev/d. In 1995,
    on day 233, both 88099A and 92083A reached mean motions in excess of 14.846
    rev/d, and then manoeuvred a day or two later. If USA 129's mean motion is
    permitted to go as high this time, then the manoeuvre could be as late as day
    109.9 (18 April), at the present rate of decay.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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