USA 129 elements and manoeuvre alert

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Sat Apr 08 2000 - 20:02:48 PDT

  • Next message: Leo Barhorst: "Obs April 8-9"

    Pierre Neirinck produced these elements, using observations by himself, David
    Brierley, Russell Eberst, Alberto Rango and Peter Wakelin, from 05 - 07 April
    UTC:
    
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 24680U 96072  A 00099.10492840  .00055531  00000-0  79195-3 0  4246
    2 24680  97.8786 163.0902 0472285 206.7858 150.4565 14.83380538    01
    
    Pierre reports that there were 10 valid points for single pass on 7 April.
    
    The USA 129 manoeuvre alert continues. Based on its past behaviour, an
    orbit-raising manoeuvre can be expected before its mean motion reaches 14.84
    rev/d, sometime before day 104.7 (13 April), at the present rate of decay.
    
    My records show only one case of previous operational satellites in this series
    for which the mean motion was permitted to go higher than 14.84 rev/d. In 1995,
    on day 233, both 88099A and 92083A reached mean motions in excess of 14.846
    rev/d, and then manoeuvred a day or two later. If USA 129's mean motion is
    permitted to go as high this time, then the manoeuvre could be as late as day
    110.1
    (19 April), at the present rate of decay rate.
    
    Ted Molczan
    z`
    
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